ProbaPredict

RB Leipzig crest RB Leipzig vs PSV PSV crest prediction

Champions League · Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: RB Leipzig 1–0 PSV (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave RB Leipzig a 39% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–0 a 3% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

1 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

RB Leipzig vs PSV prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): RB Leipzig 39% · Draw 21% · PSV 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 2.00–2.05. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 63%, No 37%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Leipzig vs PSV pre-match preview

Leipzig host PSV in the Champions League. Leipzig have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (WLWLL) and PSV 10 points from 5 (WLWDW). PSV: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 Champions League games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Leipzig 39%, PSV 40%. Expected goals are 2.00 for Leipzig and 2.05 for PSV, and the most likely score is 1-1 (7%).

The goal markets sit close to the Champions League norm: Over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 63%.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 77%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win RB Leipzig vs PSV?

This is close to a coin flip: RB Leipzig 39%, PSV 40%, with the draw at 21%. Recent form: RB Leipzig WLWLLW, PSV WLWDWW (latest first).

Model expects 4.0 total goals.

RB Leipzig39%
Draw21%
PSV40%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 77%.

Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 Leipzig games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals91%9%1.09
2.5 goals77%23%1.30
3.5 goals58%42%1.74

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance: RB Leipzig score in about 87% of simulated outcomes and PSV in about 87%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 2 of 3 Leipzig games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes63%1.58
No37%2.72

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
RB Leipzig win39%2.60
Draw21%4.73
PSV win40%2.48
Over 2.577%1.30
Under 2.523%4.33

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 4.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: RB Leipzig goals (rows) × PSV goals (columns)
RB \ PSV012345
02%3%4%3%1%1%
13%7%7%5%3%1%
23%7%7%5%3%1%
32%5%5%3%2%1%
41%2%2%2%1%0%
50%1%1%1%0%0%
Other3% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-17%
2-27%
1-27%
2-17%
2-35%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Leipzig and PSV played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Leipzig, last 5
  1. W 6–0 v Frankfurt
  2. L 0–2 at Leverkusen
  3. W 5–0 v HSV
  4. L 1–4 at Como 1907
  5. L 1–3 at Werder Bremen
Leipzig, last 5 at home
  1. W 6–0 v Frankfurt
  2. W 5–0 v HSV
  3. W 3–0 v Gladbach
  4. W 2–1 v St. Pauli
  5. W 3–1 v Union Berlin
PSV, last 5
  1. W 2–0 v Heerenveen
  2. L 2–3 at Twente
  3. W 4–1 v Sparta
  4. D 1–1 v Shaktar
  5. W 3–1 at Ajax
PSV, last 5 away
  1. L 2–3 at Twente
  2. W 3–1 at Ajax
  3. W 6–1 at Utrecht
  4. W 2–1 at Excelsior
  5. W 4–1 at Go Ahead

Current streaks

Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Leipzig and PSV.

How Leipzig and PSV compare this season

StatLeipzig (home, 1)PSV (away, 2)Champions League average
Over 1.50% (0/1)0% (0/2)87%
Over 2.50% (0/1)0% (0/2)74%
Over 3.50% (0/1)0% (0/2)63%
BTTS0% (0/1)0% (0/2)67%
Win %100% (1/1)50% (1/2)59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game1.000.502.05
Goals against per game0.000.502.05

Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Leipzig v PSV?
Our model makes PSV the more likely winner at 40%: Leipzig 39%, draw 21%, PSV 40%. Model expects 4.0 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leipzig v PSV?
Over 2.5 goals is 77% and under 2.5 is 23%, with expected goals of 4.0. Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 Leipzig games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 7%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Leipzig and PSV played recently?
Latest first: Leipzig WLWLL, PSV WLWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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