SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Augsburg prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

Full-time: SV 07 Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave SV 07 Elversberg a 50% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–3 a 1% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (50%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (80%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (56%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (66%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (60%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (76%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Augsburg prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): SV 07 Elversberg 50% · Draw 24% · FC Augsburg 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.76–1.19. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Elversberg vs Augsburg pre-match preview

Elversberg (6th, 10 pts) host Augsburg (10th, 8 pts) in the Bundesliga. Elversberg have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (LDLWW) and Augsburg 8 points from 5 (DLDWW). Augsburg: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.

Our model favours Elversberg at 50% to Augsburg's 25%. Expected goals are 1.76 for Elversberg and 1.19 for Augsburg, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 56%, below the Bundesliga rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?

SV 07 Elversberg are favoured at 50%, but the draw and a FC Augsburg win together still account for 50%. Recent form: SV 07 Elversberg LDLWW, FC Augsburg DLDWWL (latest first).

Elversberg won 2 of 3 home games this season.

SV 07 Elversberg

50%

Draw

24%

FC Augsburg

25%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in all 6 Augsburg games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	80%	20%	1.26
2.5 goals	56%	44%	1.77
3.5 goals	34%	66%	2.94

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: SV 07 Elversberg score in about 83% of simulated outcomes and FC Augsburg in about 70%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Elversberg home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	60%	1.67
No	40%	2.49

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
SV 07 Elversberg win	50%	1.99
Draw	24%	4.12
FC Augsburg win	25%	3.94
Over 2.5	56%	1.77
Under 2.5	44%	2.29

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SV 07 Elversberg goals (rows) × FC Augsburg goals (columns)
SV \ FC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	6%	4%	1%	0%	0%
1	9%	11%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

10%

1-0

2-0

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Elversberg and Augsburg played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Elversberg, last 5

Elversberg, last 5 at home

Augsburg, last 5

Augsburg, last 5 away

Current streaks

Augsburg: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.
Augsburg: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
Augsburg: both teams scored in each of their last 5 league games.
Augsburg have not won in their last 4 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Elversberg and Augsburg.

How Elversberg and Augsburg compare this season

Stat	Elversberg (home, 3)	Augsburg (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	100% (3/3)	81%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	100% (3/3)	74%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	100% (3/3)	56%
BTTS	100% (3/3)	100% (3/3)	59%
Win %	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	2.67	3.00	1.84
Goals against per game	2.33	2.67	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Elversberg	6	10	6
Augsburg	10	8	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Elversberg v Augsburg?: Our model makes Elversberg the more likely winner at 50%: Elversberg 50%, draw 24%, Augsburg 25%. Elversberg won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elversberg v Augsburg?: Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in all 6 Augsburg games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Elversberg and Augsburg played recently?: Latest first: Elversberg LDLWW, Augsburg DLDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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