Bundesliga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): SC Paderborn 07 41% · Draw 25% · Hamburger SV 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.59–1.45. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 61%, No 39%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Paderborn vs HSV preview
Paderborn (16th, 5 pts) host HSV (9th, 9 pts) in the Bundesliga. Paderborn have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (DLWLL) and HSV 9 points from 5 (WWWLL). Paderborn: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Paderborn 41%, HSV 34%. Expected goals are 1.59 for Paderborn and 1.45 for HSV, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).
Over 2.5 goals is 59%, below the Bundesliga rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match. In their last 5 meetings, Paderborn won 3, HSV didn't win any and 2 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
This is close to a coin flip: SC Paderborn 07 41%, Hamburger SV 34%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: SC Paderborn 07 DLWLLD, Hamburger SV WWWLLL (latest first).
HSV lost 2 of 3 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.
Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 HSV games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 81% | 19% | 1.23 |
| 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | 1.71 |
| 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | 2.77 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance: SC Paderborn 07 score in about 80% of simulated outcomes and Hamburger SV in about 77%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 22 of 34 HSV games last season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 |
| Hamburger SV win | 34% | 2.91 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.41 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.0 total goals.
| SC \ Hamburger | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 7% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Paderborn and HSV played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Paderborn: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
- HSV are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
- HSV have won each of their last 3 league games.
Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Paderborn and HSV.
How Paderborn and HSV compare this season
| Stat | Paderborn (home, 3) | HSV (away, 3) | Bundesliga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 67% (2/3) | 100% (3/3) | 81% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) | 56% |
| BTTS | 33% (1/3) | 33% (1/3) | 59% |
| Win % | 33% (1/3) | 33% (1/3) | 52% home · 28% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.84 |
| Goals against per game | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.84 |
Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Bundesliga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 16 | 5 | 6 |
| HSV | 9 | 9 | 6 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Paderborn 3 wins, 2 draws, HSV 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 2 Mar 2025 | D2 | Paderborn v HSV | 2–0 |
| Sat, 28 Sept 2024 | D2 | HSV v Paderborn | 2–2 |
| Fri, 10 May 2024 | D2 | Paderborn v HSV | 1–0 |
| Sat, 9 Dec 2023 | D2 | HSV v Paderborn | 1–2 |
| Fri, 5 May 2023 | D2 | HSV v Paderborn | 2–2 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Paderborn v HSV?
- Our model makes Paderborn the more likely winner at 41%: Paderborn 41%, draw 25%, HSV 34%. HSV lost 2 of 3 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paderborn v HSV?
- Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 HSV games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Paderborn and HSV played recently?
- Latest first: Paderborn DLWLL, HSV WWWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- SC Paderborn 07
- Hamburger SV
- Bundesliga predictions
- Bundesliga table
- Bundesliga Home win
- Bundesliga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Bundesliga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.577% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 59% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | U3.574% | 45% | 27% | 28% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 58% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.579% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 56% | 79% | 33% | 59% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.586% | 60% | 20% | 20% | 67% | 86% | 46% | 62% |
17:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.589% | 67% | 18% | 15% | 71% | 89% | 51% | 62% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.588% | 28% | 22% | 50% | 70% | 88% | 48% | 64% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 51% |
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.581% | 27% | 25% | 48% | 57% | 81% | 35% | 59% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.577% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 45% | 71% | 23% | 52% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.576% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 53% |