SV Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

Full-time: SV Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 25% chance, and the exact score 2–2 a 6% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (44%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (60%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (75%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (78%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (54%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (68%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

SV Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): SV Werder Bremen 44% · Draw 25% · SC Paderborn 07 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.59–1.27. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn pre-match preview

Werder Bremen (8th, 9 pts) host Paderborn (16th, 5 pts) in the Bundesliga. Werder Bremen have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (DWDWL) and Paderborn 4 points from 5 (LWLLD). Werder Bremen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Werder Bremen at 44% to Paderborn's 30%. Expected goals are 1.59 for Werder Bremen and 1.27 for Paderborn, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 54%, below the Bundesliga rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win SV Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?

SV Werder Bremen are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a SC Paderborn 07 win together still account for 56%. Recent form: SV Werder Bremen DWDWLL, SC Paderborn 07 LWLLD (latest first).

Werder Bremen won 2 of 3 home games this season.

SV Werder Bremen

44%

Draw

25%

SC Paderborn 07

30%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 54% and Under 2.5 is 46%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Werder Bremen home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	78%	22%	1.28
2.5 goals	54%	46%	1.84
3.5 goals	32%	68%	3.11

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: SV Werder Bremen score in about 80% of simulated outcomes and SC Paderborn 07 in about 72%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 6 Werder Bremen games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	60%	1.67
No	40%	2.48

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
SV Werder Bremen win	44%	2.25
Draw	25%	3.93
SC Paderborn 07 win	30%	3.31
Over 2.5	54%	1.84
Under 2.5	46%	2.20

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SV Werder Bremen goals (rows) × SC Paderborn 07 goals (columns)
SV \ SC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

2-1

1-0

1-2

2-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Werder Bremen and Paderborn played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Werder Bremen, last 5

Werder Bremen, last 5 at home

Paderborn, last 5

Paderborn, last 5 away

Current streaks

Werder Bremen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Werder Bremen: both teams scored in each of their last 6 league games.
Werder Bremen are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Paderborn: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Werder Bremen: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Werder Bremen and Paderborn.

How Werder Bremen and Paderborn compare this season

Stat	Werder Bremen (home, 3)	Paderborn (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	81%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	74%
Over 3.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	56%
BTTS	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	59%
Win %	67% (2/3)	0% (0/3)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	2.67	0.67	1.84
Goals against per game	1.67	1.67	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Werder Bremen	8	9	6
Paderborn	16	5	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Werder Bremen 1 win, 0 draws, Paderborn 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 2; both teams scored in 2 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 22 Jan 2022	D2	Paderborn v Werder Bremen	3–4
Sun, 15 Aug 2021	D2	Werder Bremen v Paderborn	1–4

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Werder Bremen v Paderborn?: Our model makes Werder Bremen the more likely winner at 44%: Werder Bremen 44%, draw 25%, Paderborn 30%. Werder Bremen won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Werder Bremen v Paderborn?: Over 2.5 goals is 54% and under 2.5 is 46%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in all 3 Werder Bremen home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Werder Bremen and Paderborn played recently?: Latest first: Werder Bremen DWDWL, Paderborn LWLLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaAugsburgvUnion Berlin	O1.577%	50%	25%	25%	77%	52%	30%	59%	52%	77%	30%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaKölnvSchalke	U3.574%	45%	27%	28%	74%	48%	26%	58%	48%	74%	26%	58%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaMainzvWerder Bremen	O1.579%	52%	24%	24%	79%	56%	33%	59%	56%	79%	33%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaLeipzigvElversberg	O1.586%	60%	20%	20%	86%	67%	46%	62%	67%	86%	46%	62%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaPaderbornvHSV	O1.581%	41%	25%	34%	81%	59%	36%	61%	59%	81%	36%	61%
17:30 · BundesligaBundesligaDortmundvFrankfurt	O1.589%	67%	18%	15%	89%	71%	51%	62%	71%	89%	51%	62%

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