1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04 prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04 prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): 1. FC Köln 45% · Draw 27% · FC Schalke 04 28%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.47–1.12. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Köln vs Schalke preview

Köln (12th, 7 pts) host Schalke (15th, 5 pts) in the Bundesliga. Köln have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LWLDL) and Schalke 5 points from 5 (LLDWD). Schalke have not won in their last 3 league games.

Our model favours Köln at 45% to Schalke's 28%. Expected goals are 1.47 for Köln and 1.12 for Schalke, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 52%, while 74% of Bundesliga matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Köln won 3, Schalke didn't win any and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win 1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04?

1. FC Köln are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a FC Schalke 04 win together still account for 55%. Recent form: 1. FC Köln LWLDLW, FC Schalke 04 LLDWDL (latest first).

Köln won 2 of 3 home games this season.

1. FC Köln

45%

Draw

27%

FC Schalke 04

28%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 48% and Under 2.5 is 52%.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.36
2.5 goals	48%	52%	2.09
3.5 goals	26%	74%	3.81

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: 1. FC Köln score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and FC Schalke 04 in about 67%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Köln home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	58%	1.73
No	42%	2.36

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
1. FC Köln win	45%	2.23
Draw	27%	3.73
FC Schalke 04 win	28%	3.53
Over 2.5	48%	2.09
Under 2.5	52%	1.92

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: 1. FC Köln goals (rows) × FC Schalke 04 goals (columns)
1. \ FC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	8%	5%	2%	0%	0%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	4%	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

11%

2-1

2-0

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Köln and Schalke played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Köln, last 5

Köln, last 5 at home

Schalke, last 5

Schalke, last 5 away

Current streaks

Schalke have not won in their last 3 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Köln and Schalke.

How Köln and Schalke compare this season

Stat	Köln (home, 3)	Schalke (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	100% (3/3)	81%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	100% (3/3)	74%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	56%
BTTS	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	59%
Win %	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	2.00	1.33	1.84
Goals against per game	1.33	2.00	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Köln	12	7	6
Schalke	15	5	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Köln 3 wins, 1 draw, Schalke 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 9 Feb 2025	D2	Köln v Schalke	1–0
Sun, 1 Sept 2024	D2	Schalke v Köln	1–3
Sun, 29 Jan 2023	Bundesliga	Schalke v Köln	0–0
Sun, 7 Aug 2022	Bundesliga	Köln v Schalke	3–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Köln v Schalke?: Our model makes Köln the more likely winner at 45%: Köln 45%, draw 27%, Schalke 28%. Köln won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Köln v Schalke?: Over 2.5 goals is 48% and under 2.5 is 52%, with expected goals of 2.6. Model expects 2.6 total goals.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Köln and Schalke played recently?: Latest first: Köln LWLDL, Schalke LLDWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaAugsburgvUnion Berlin	O1.577%	50%	25%	25%	77%	52%	30%	59%	52%	77%	30%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaMainzvWerder Bremen	O1.579%	52%	24%	24%	79%	56%	33%	59%	56%	79%	33%	59%
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17:30 · BundesligaBundesligaDortmundvFrankfurt	O1.589%	67%	18%	15%	89%	71%	51%	62%	71%	89%	51%	62%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaHoffenheimvLeverkusen	O1.588%	28%	22%	50%	88%	70%	48%	64%	70%	88%	48%	64%

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