Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK
Full-time: FC Schalke 04 0–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave 1. FSV Mainz 05 a 38% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 10% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.
4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick away (38%)Correct
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (73%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 2.5: pick under (53%)Correct
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (75%)Correct
- Both teams to score: pick yes (58%)Incorrect
- Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick 12 (72%)Correct
Published before kick-off, unchanged
FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): FC Schalke 04 35% · Draw 28% · 1. FSV Mainz 05 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.25–1.30. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Schalke vs Mainz pre-match preview
Schalke (15th, 5 pts) host Mainz (5th, 10 pts) in the Bundesliga. Schalke have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LDWDL) and Mainz 7 points from 5 (LWLWD). Schalke have not won in their last 3 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Schalke 35%, Mainz 38%. Expected goals are 1.25 for Schalke and 1.30 for Mainz, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).
The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 53%, while 74% of Bundesliga matches go over 2.5.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05?
This is close to a coin flip: FC Schalke 04 35%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 38%, with the draw at 28%. Recent form: FC Schalke 04 LDWDL, 1. FSV Mainz 05 LWLWDW (latest first).
Mainz won all 3 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 47% and Under 2.5 is 53%.
Under 2.5 in all 3 Schalke home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 73% | 27% | 1.37 |
| 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | 2.13 |
| 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | 3.94 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: FC Schalke 04 score in about 71% of simulated outcomes and 1. FSV Mainz 05 in about 73%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 11 of 17 Mainz away games last season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 35% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 38% | 2.66 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.6 total goals.
| FC \ 1. | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Schalke and Mainz played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Schalke have not won in their last 3 league games.
Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Schalke and Mainz.
How Schalke and Mainz compare this season
| Stat | Schalke (home, 3) | Mainz (away, 3) | Bundesliga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 0% (0/3) | 67% (2/3) | 81% |
| Over 2.5 | 0% (0/3) | 67% (2/3) | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% (0/3) | 67% (2/3) | 56% |
| BTTS | 0% (0/3) | 33% (1/3) | 59% |
| Win % | 0% (0/3) | 100% (3/3) | 52% home · 28% away |
| Goals for per game | 0.00 | 3.33 | 1.84 |
| Goals against per game | 0.33 | 1.00 | 1.84 |
Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Bundesliga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke | 15 | 5 | 6 |
| Mainz | 5 | 10 | 6 |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Schalke 2 wins, 0 draws, Mainz 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 5 May 2023 | Bundesliga | Mainz v Schalke | 2–3 |
| Wed, 9 Nov 2022 | Bundesliga | Schalke v Mainz | 1–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Schalke v Mainz?
- Our model makes Mainz the more likely winner at 38%: Schalke 35%, draw 28%, Mainz 38%. Mainz won all 3 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Schalke v Mainz?
- Over 2.5 goals is 47% and under 2.5 is 53%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in all 3 Schalke home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Schalke and Mainz played recently?
- Latest first: Schalke LDWDL, Mainz LWLWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- FC Schalke 04
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- Bundesliga predictions
- Bundesliga table
- Bundesliga Home win
- Bundesliga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Bundesliga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.577% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 59% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | U3.574% | 45% | 27% | 28% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 58% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.579% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 56% | 79% | 33% | 59% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.586% | 60% | 20% | 20% | 67% | 86% | 46% | 62% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.581% | 41% | 25% | 34% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 61% |
17:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.589% | 67% | 18% | 15% | 71% | 89% | 51% | 62% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574%✓ | 48%✓ | 26%✕ | 25%✕ | 48%✕ | 73%✓ | 26%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578%✕ | 62%✕ | 24%✓ | 14%✕ | 43%✓ | 70%✓ | 22%✓ | 48%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.581%✓ | 61%✕ | 22%✓ | 18%✕ | 58%✓ | 81%✓ | 36%✓ | 54%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.582%✓ | 39%✓ | 30%✕ | 31%✕ | 37%✕ | 65%✓ | 18%✕ | 50%✕ |
FT · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.575%✓ | 38%✕ | 27%✕ | 35%✓ | 50%✕ | 75%✓ | 28%✕ | 57%✕ |