1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen 
prediction
Bundesliga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction (Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): 1. FSV Mainz 05 32% · Draw 25% · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.36–1.60. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 17:01 UK.
Published · Updated
Who will win 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are favoured at 43%, but the draw and a 1. FSV Mainz 05 win together still account for 57%. Recent form: 1. FSV Mainz 05 WLWDWL, Bayer 04 Leverkusen WDWLDL (latest first).
1. FSV Mainz 05
32%
Draw
25%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
43%
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 57% and Under 2.5 is 43%.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 80% | 20% | 1.25 |
| 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | 1.77 |
| 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | 2.92 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 43% | 2.34 |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 |
Form and head-to-head
1. FSV Mainz 05: last 6
Goals per game: 2.2
| Sun, 10 May 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · BundesligaMainz1 Union Berlin3Mainz1–3Union Berlin | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 16 May 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Bundesliga Heidenheim0Mainz2Heidenheim0–2Mainz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 29 Aug 2026 | ||||||||
FT · BundesligaMainz0 Paderborn0Mainz0–0Paderborn | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sun, 6 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Bundesliga HSV0Mainz5HSV0–5Mainz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 12 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · BundesligaMainz1 Frankfurt3Mainz1–3Frankfurt | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 19 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Bundesliga Gladbach3Mainz4Gladbach3–4Mainz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: last 6
Goals per game: 2.0
| Sat, 9 May 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · Bundesliga Stuttgart3Leverkusen1Stuttgart3–1Leverkusen | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 16 May 2026 | ||||||||
| FT · BundesligaLeverkusen1HSV1Leverkusen1–1HSV | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 29 Aug 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Bundesliga Elversberg3Leverkusen2Elversberg3–2Leverkusen | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 5 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
| FT · BundesligaLeverkusen4Union Berlin0Leverkusen4–0Union Berlin | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 12 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Bundesliga Augsburg2Leverkusen2Augsburg2–2Leverkusen | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sun, 20 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · BundesligaLeverkusen2 Leipzig0Leverkusen2–0Leipzig | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Last 2 meetings
| Sat, 18 Oct 2025 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT · BundesligaMainz3Leverkusen4Mainz3–4Leverkusen | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 28 Feb 2026 | ||||||||
| FT · BundesligaLeverkusen1Mainz1Leverkusen1–1Mainz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
What are the most likely scores?
1-1
12%
1-2
9%
0-1
8%
2-1
8%
0-2
7%
Related
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Bundesliga predictions
- Bundesliga Home win
- Bundesliga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Other matches the same day
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:30 · Premier League Arsenal LeedsArsenalvLeeds | 62% | 24% | 13% | 41% | U3.5 79% | 68% | 21% | |
12:30 · Championship West Brom BirminghamWest BromvBirmingham | 39% | 30% | 31% | 38% | U3.5 81% | 66% | 19% | |
12:30 · Championship Swansea NorwichSwanseavNorwich | 44% | 26% | 30% | 54% | O1.5 78% | 78% | 32% | |