FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): FC Augsburg 50% · Draw 25% · 1. FC Union Berlin 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.66–1.10. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Augsburg vs Union Berlin preview

Augsburg (10th, 8 pts) host Union Berlin (17th, 5 pts) in the Bundesliga. Augsburg have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LDLDW) and Union Berlin 4 points from 5 (DWLLL). Augsburg: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.

Our model favours Augsburg at 50% to Union Berlin's 25%. Expected goals are 1.66 for Augsburg and 1.10 for Union Berlin, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 52%, below the Bundesliga rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match. In their last 5 meetings, Augsburg won 2, Union Berlin won 2 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

FC Augsburg are favoured at 50%, but the draw and a 1. FC Union Berlin win together still account for 50%. Recent form: FC Augsburg LDLDWW, 1. FC Union Berlin DWLLLD (latest first).

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

FC Augsburg

50%

Draw

25%

1. FC Union Berlin

25%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 52% and Under 2.5 is 48%.

Over 2.5 in all 6 Augsburg games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	77%	23%	1.30
2.5 goals	52%	48%	1.92
3.5 goals	30%	70%	3.34

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: FC Augsburg score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and 1. FC Union Berlin in about 67%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 6 Augsburg games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	59%	1.71
No	41%	2.41

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Augsburg win	50%	2.00
Draw	25%	3.98
1. FC Union Berlin win	25%	4.04
Over 2.5	52%	1.92
Under 2.5	48%	2.09

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Augsburg goals (rows) × 1. FC Union Berlin goals (columns)
FC \ 1.	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	7%	4%	1%	0%	0%
1	10%	12%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-0

10%

2-1

10%

2-0

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Augsburg and Union Berlin played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Augsburg, last 5

Augsburg, last 5 at home

Union Berlin, last 5

Union Berlin, last 5 away

Current streaks

Augsburg: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.
Augsburg: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
Augsburg: both teams scored in each of their last 5 league games.
Augsburg have not won in their last 4 league games.
Union Berlin: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Augsburg and Union Berlin.

How Augsburg and Union Berlin compare this season

Stat	Augsburg (home, 3)	Union Berlin (away, 2)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	100% (2/2)	81%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	100% (2/2)	74%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	100% (2/2)	56%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	0% (0/2)	59%
Win %	33% (1/3)	0% (0/2)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	2.33	0.00	1.84
Goals against per game	1.33	5.50	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Augsburg	10	8	6
Union Berlin	17	5	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Augsburg 2 wins, 1 draw, Union Berlin 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 16 May 2026	Bundesliga	Union Berlin v Augsburg	4–0
Thu, 15 Jan 2026	Bundesliga	Augsburg v Union Berlin	1–1
Sat, 17 May 2025	Bundesliga	Augsburg v Union Berlin	1–2
Wed, 15 Jan 2025	Bundesliga	Union Berlin v Augsburg	0–2
Fri, 12 Apr 2024	Bundesliga	Augsburg v Union Berlin	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Augsburg v Union Berlin?: Our model makes Augsburg the more likely winner at 50%: Augsburg 50%, draw 25%, Union Berlin 25%. Model expects 2.8 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Augsburg v Union Berlin?: Over 2.5 goals is 52% and under 2.5 is 48%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in all 6 Augsburg games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Augsburg and Union Berlin played recently?: Latest first: Augsburg LDLDW, Union Berlin DWLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaKölnvSchalke	U3.574%	45%	27%	28%	74%	48%	26%	58%	48%	74%	26%	58%
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17:30 · BundesligaBundesligaDortmundvFrankfurt	O1.589%	67%	18%	15%	89%	71%	51%	62%	71%	89%	51%	62%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaHoffenheimvLeverkusen	O1.588%	28%	22%	50%	88%	70%	48%	64%	70%	88%	48%	64%

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