1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

Full-time: 1. FC Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia Dortmund (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 22% chance, and the exact score 0–0 a 5% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 5.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (60%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (59%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (10%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick X2 (81%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (81%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (59%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (63%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): 1. FC Union Berlin 19% · Draw 22% · Borussia Dortmund 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.04–2.03. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Union Berlin vs Dortmund pre-match preview

Union Berlin (17th, 5 pts) host Dortmund (2nd, 14 pts) in the Bundesliga. Union Berlin have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (WLLLD) and Dortmund 10 points from 5 (LDWWW), so Dortmund arrive in clearly better form. Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

Our model makes Dortmund clear favourites at 60%, with Union Berlin at 19%. Expected goals are 1.04 for Union Berlin and 2.03 for Dortmund, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

Over 2.5 goals is 59%, below the Bundesliga rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match. In their last 4 meetings, Union Berlin won 1 and Dortmund won 3; all had over 2.5 goals.

Dortmund to win is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites at 60%, with 1. FC Union Berlin at 19%. Recent form: 1. FC Union Berlin WLLLDW, Borussia Dortmund LDWWWW (latest first).

Dortmund won 2 of 3 away games this season.

1. FC Union Berlin

19%

Draw

22%

Borussia Dortmund

60%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.

Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 Union Berlin games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	81%	19%	1.23
2.5 goals	59%	41%	1.69
3.5 goals	37%	63%	2.71

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: 1. FC Union Berlin score in about 65% of simulated outcomes and Borussia Dortmund in about 87%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 12 of 17 Union Berlin home games last season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	59%	1.69
No	41%	2.46

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
1. FC Union Berlin win	19%	5.40
Draw	22%	4.60
Borussia Dortmund win	60%	1.67
Over 2.5	59%	1.69
Under 2.5	41%	2.45

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: 1. FC Union Berlin goals (rows) × Borussia Dortmund goals (columns)
1. \ Borussia	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	9%	10%	6%	3%	1%
1	4%	10%	10%	7%	3%	1%
2	3%	5%	5%	4%	2%	1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

10%

1-2

10%

0-2

10%

0-1

1-3

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Union Berlin and Dortmund played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Union Berlin, last 5

Union Berlin, last 5 at home

Dortmund, last 5

Dortmund, last 5 away

Current streaks

Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Union Berlin: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Union Berlin and Dortmund.

How Union Berlin and Dortmund compare this season

Stat	Union Berlin (home, 4)	Dortmund (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	50% (2/4)	33% (1/3)	81%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	33% (1/3)	74%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	33% (1/3)	56%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	33% (1/3)	59%
Win %	25% (1/4)	67% (2/3)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	1.25	1.33	1.84
Goals against per game	1.50	0.67	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Union Berlin	17	5	6
Dortmund	2	14	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Union Berlin 1 win, 0 draws, Dortmund 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 24 Jan 2026	Bundesliga	Union Berlin v Dortmund	0–3
Sun, 31 Aug 2025	Bundesliga	Dortmund v Union Berlin	3–0
Sat, 22 Feb 2025	Bundesliga	Dortmund v Union Berlin	6–0
Sat, 5 Oct 2024	Bundesliga	Union Berlin v Dortmund	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Union Berlin v Dortmund?: Our model makes Dortmund the more likely winner at 60%: Union Berlin 19%, draw 22%, Dortmund 60%. Dortmund won 2 of 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Union Berlin v Dortmund?: Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 Union Berlin games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Union Berlin and Dortmund played recently?: Latest first: Union Berlin WLLLD, Dortmund LDWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaAugsburgvUnion Berlin	O1.577%	50%	25%	25%	77%	52%	30%	59%	52%	77%	30%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaKölnvSchalke	U3.574%	45%	27%	28%	74%	48%	26%	58%	48%	74%	26%	58%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaMainzvWerder Bremen	O1.579%	52%	24%	24%	79%	56%	33%	59%	56%	79%	33%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaLeipzigvElversberg	O1.586%	60%	20%	20%	86%	67%	46%	62%	67%	86%	46%	62%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaPaderbornvHSV	O1.581%	41%	25%	34%	81%	59%	36%	61%	59%	81%	36%	61%
17:30 · BundesligaBundesligaDortmundvFrankfurt	O1.589%	67%	18%	15%	89%	71%	51%	62%	71%	89%	51%	62%

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