FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK

Full-time: FC Bayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave FC Bayern München a 76% chance of winning. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

6 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (76%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (93%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (80%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick over (62%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (63%)Correct
Correct score: pick 3-1 (8%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (90%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): FC Bayern München 76% · Draw 13% · RB Leipzig 10%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%. Most likely score: 3-1. Expected goals 3.15–1.16. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 63%, No 37%. Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 3-0 (7%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bayern vs Leipzig pre-match preview

Bayern (1st, 14 pts) host Leipzig (7th, 9 pts) in the Bundesliga. Bayern have taken 11 points from their last 5 games (DDWWW) and Leipzig 9 points from 5 (WWLWL). Bayern are unbeaten in their last 21 league games.

Our model makes Bayern clear favourites at 76%, with Leipzig at 10%. Expected goals are 3.15 for Bayern and 1.16 for Leipzig, and the most likely score is 3-1 (8%).

The goal markets sit close to the Bundesliga norm: Over 2.5 at 80% and both teams to score at 63%. In their last 4 meetings, Bayern won 3, Leipzig didn't win any and 1 ended level; all had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 80%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?

FC Bayern München are clear favourites at 76%, with RB Leipzig at 10%. Recent form: FC Bayern München DDWWWD, RB Leipzig WWLWLL (latest first).

Bayern won all 3 home games this season.

FC Bayern München

76%

Draw

13%

RB Leipzig

10%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 80%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Bayern home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	93%	7%	1.08
2.5 goals	80%	20%	1.24
3.5 goals	62%	38%	1.60

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance: FC Bayern München score in about 96% of simulated outcomes and RB Leipzig in about 72%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 Bayern games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	63%	1.59
No	37%	2.70

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Bayern München win	76%	1.31
Draw	13%	7.47
RB Leipzig win	10%	9.70
Over 2.5	80%	1.24
Under 2.5	20%	5.09

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 4.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Bayern München goals (rows) × RB Leipzig goals (columns)
FC \ RB	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
1	4%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	1%	0%
3	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
4	6%	6%	4%	1%	0%	0%
5	3%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
Other	10% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

3-1

2-1

3-0

2-0

4-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bayern and Leipzig played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Bayern are unbeaten in their last 21 league games.
Leipzig: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 league games.
Bayern: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Bayern: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Bayern and Leipzig.

How Bayern and Leipzig compare this season

Stat	Bayern (home, 3)	Leipzig (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	100% (3/3)	81%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	74%
Over 3.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	56%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	59%
Win %	100% (3/3)	0% (0/3)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	6.00	0.67	1.84
Goals against per game	0.67	3.67	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Bayern	1	14	6
Leipzig	7	9	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Bayern 3 wins, 1 draw, Leipzig 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 17 Jan 2026	Bundesliga	Leipzig v Bayern	1–5
Fri, 22 Aug 2025	Bundesliga	Bayern v Leipzig	6–0
Sat, 3 May 2025	Bundesliga	Leipzig v Bayern	3–3
Fri, 20 Dec 2024	Bundesliga	Bayern v Leipzig	5–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bayern v Leipzig?: Our model makes Bayern the more likely winner at 76%: Bayern 76%, draw 13%, Leipzig 10%. Bayern won all 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayern v Leipzig?: Over 2.5 goals is 80% and under 2.5 is 20%, with expected goals of 4.3. Over 2.5 in all 3 Bayern home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 3-1 at 8%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bayern and Leipzig played recently?: Latest first: Bayern DDWWW, Leipzig WWLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaAugsburgvUnion Berlin	O1.577%	50%	25%	25%	77%	52%	30%	59%	52%	77%	30%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaKölnvSchalke	U3.574%	45%	27%	28%	74%	48%	26%	58%	48%	74%	26%	58%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaMainzvWerder Bremen	O1.579%	52%	24%	24%	79%	56%	33%	59%	56%	79%	33%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaLeipzigvElversberg	O1.586%	60%	20%	20%	86%	67%	46%	62%	67%	86%	46%	62%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaPaderbornvHSV	O1.581%	41%	25%	34%	81%	59%	36%	61%	59%	81%	36%	61%
17:30 · BundesligaBundesligaDortmundvFrankfurt	O1.589%	67%	18%	15%	89%	71%	51%	62%	71%	89%	51%	62%

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