Full-time: Real Madrid CF 4–1 RB Leipzig (Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Real Madrid CF a 65% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–1 a 5% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.
Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.
How each market was graded
1X2 (match result): pick home (65%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (87%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (68%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (54%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (57%)Correct
Correct score: pick 2-1 (10%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (84%)Correct
Published before kick-off, unchanged
Real Madrid CF vs RB Leipzig prediction (Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Real Madrid CF 65% · Draw 19% · RB Leipzig 16%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.39–1.12. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (8%).
Real Madrid host Leipzig in the Champions League. Real Madrid have taken 12 points from their last 5 games (WWWLW) and Leipzig 9 points from 5 (LWWLW). Real Madrid: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 Champions League games.
Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites at 65%, with Leipzig at 16%. Expected goals are 2.39 for Real Madrid and 1.12 for Leipzig, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).
Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 57%, against 67% across the Champions League.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 68%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.
Who will win Real Madrid CF vs RB Leipzig?
Real Madrid CF are clear favourites at 65%, with RB Leipzig at 16%. Recent form: Real Madrid CF WWWLWW, RB Leipzig LWWLWL (latest first).
Real Madrid have won each of their last 3 Champions League games.
Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: Real Madrid CF score in about 91% of simulated outcomes and RB Leipzig in about 68%, and both need to happen.
Real Madrid: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 Champions League games.
Real Madrid: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 8 Champions League games.
Real Madrid: both teams scored in each of their last 6 Champions League games.
Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 3 Champions League games.
Real Madrid have won each of their last 3 Champions League games.
Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Real Madrid and Leipzig.
How Real Madrid and Leipzig compare this season
Stat
Real Madrid (home, 2)
Leipzig (away, 2)
Champions League average
Over 1.5
100% (2/2)
100% (2/2)
87%
Over 2.5
100% (2/2)
100% (2/2)
74%
Over 3.5
50% (1/2)
100% (2/2)
63%
BTTS
100% (2/2)
100% (2/2)
67%
Win %
100% (2/2)
0% (0/2)
59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game
3.00
1.00
2.05
Goals against per game
1.00
4.00
2.05
Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in our records.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Madrid v Leipzig?
Our model makes Real Madrid the more likely winner at 65%: Real Madrid 65%, draw 19%, Leipzig 16%. Real Madrid have won each of their last 3 Champions League games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Madrid v Leipzig?
Over 2.5 goals is 68% and under 2.5 is 32%, with expected goals of 3.5. Over 2.5 in all 3 Real Madrid games this season.
What is the most likely score?
2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Real Madrid and Leipzig played recently?
Latest first: Real Madrid WWWLW, Leipzig LWWLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
