ProbaPredict

AS Roma crest AS Roma vs Real Madrid CF Real Madrid CF crest prediction

Champions League · Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid CF (Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Real Madrid CF a 34% chance of winning, and the exact score 3–4 a 0% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

AS Roma vs Real Madrid CF prediction (Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): AS Roma 38% · Draw 27% · Real Madrid CF 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.33–1.25. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Roma vs Real Madrid pre-match preview

Roma host Real Madrid in the Champions League. Roma have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (DDWDW) and Real Madrid 12 points from 5 (WLWWW). Real Madrid: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 Champions League games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Roma 38%, Real Madrid 34%. Expected goals are 1.33 for Roma and 1.25 for Real Madrid, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 52%, while 74% of Champions League matches go over 2.5.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win AS Roma vs Real Madrid CF?

This is close to a coin flip: AS Roma 38%, Real Madrid CF 34%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: AS Roma DDWDWW, Real Madrid CF WLWWWL (latest first).

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

AS Roma38%
Draw27%
Real Madrid CF34%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 48% and Under 2.5 is 52%.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals73%27%1.36
2.5 goals48%52%2.10
3.5 goals26%74%3.85

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: AS Roma score in about 74% of simulated outcomes and Real Madrid CF in about 72%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Real Madrid games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes54%1.86
No46%2.16

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
AS Roma win38%2.63
Draw27%3.64
Real Madrid CF win34%2.90
Over 2.548%2.10
Under 2.552%1.91

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AS Roma goals (rows) × Real Madrid CF goals (columns)
AS \ Real012345
08%9%6%2%1%0%
110%13%8%3%1%0%
27%8%5%2%1%0%
33%4%2%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-010%
0-19%
2-18%
0-08%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Roma and Real Madrid played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Roma, last 5
  1. D 0–0 at Como 1907
  2. D 2–2 v Inter
  3. W 2–0 at Torino
  4. D 1–1 at Fenerbahçe
  5. W 2–1 v Atalanta
Roma, last 5 at home
  1. D 2–2 v Inter
  2. W 2–1 v Atalanta
  3. W 4–0 v Fiorentina
  4. W 2–0 v Lazio
  5. W 4–0 v Fiorentina
Real Madrid, last 5
  1. W 1–0 v Villarreal
  2. L 1–2 at Atleti
  3. W 3–2 at Elche
  4. W 4–1 v Rayo Vallecano
  5. W 2–1 v Inter
Real Madrid, last 5 away
  1. L 1–2 at Atleti
  2. W 3–2 at Elche
  3. L 0–1 at Real Betis
  4. W 2–1 at Espanyol
  5. W 1–0 at Sevilla

Current streaks

Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Roma and Real Madrid.

How Roma and Real Madrid compare this season

StatRoma (home, 2)Real Madrid (away, 1)Champions League average
Over 1.5100% (2/2)100% (1/1)87%
Over 2.5100% (2/2)100% (1/1)74%
Over 3.5100% (2/2)100% (1/1)63%
BTTS50% (1/2)100% (1/1)67%
Win %50% (1/2)100% (1/1)59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game3.504.002.05
Goals against per game2.003.002.05

Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Roma v Real Madrid?
Our model makes Roma the more likely winner at 38%: Roma 38%, draw 27%, Real Madrid 34%. Model expects 2.6 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Roma v Real Madrid?
Over 2.5 goals is 48% and under 2.5 is 52%, with expected goals of 2.6. Model expects 2.6 total goals.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Roma and Real Madrid played recently?
Latest first: Roma DDWDW, Real Madrid WLWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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