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Queens Park Rangers FC crest Queens Park Rangers FC vs Derby County FC Derby County FC crest prediction

Championship · Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Queens Park Rangers FC 4–1 Derby County FC (Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Queens Park Rangers FC a 41% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–1 a 1% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Queens Park Rangers FC vs Derby County FC prediction (Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Queens Park Rangers FC 41% · Draw 27% · Derby County FC 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.42–1.22. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

QPR vs Derby County pre-match preview

QPR (9th, 17 pts) host Derby County (23rd, 6 pts) in the Championship. QPR have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (DDDDL) and Derby County 2 points from 5 (DDLLL). Derby County have not won in their last 7 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: QPR 41%, Derby County 32%. Expected goals are 1.42 for QPR and 1.22 for Derby County, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 51%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, QPR won 1 and Derby County won 3; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Queens Park Rangers FC vs Derby County FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Queens Park Rangers FC 41%, Derby County FC 32%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: Queens Park Rangers FC DDDDLW, Derby County FC DDLLLW (latest first).

Derby County lost 3 of 5 away games this season.

Queens Park Rangers FC41%
Draw27%
Derby County FC32%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals74%26%1.34
2.5 goals49%51%2.04
3.5 goals27%73%3.68

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Queens Park Rangers FC score in about 76% of simulated outcomes and Derby County FC in about 71%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 7 of 11 QPR games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes53%1.88
No47%2.14

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Queens Park Rangers FC win41%2.43
Draw27%3.70
Derby County FC win32%3.14
Over 2.549%2.04
Under 2.551%1.96

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Queens Park Rangers FC goals (rows) × Derby County FC goals (columns)
Queens \ Derby012345
08%8%5%2%1%0%
110%13%8%3%1%0%
27%9%5%2%1%0%
33%4%3%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-010%
2-19%
0-18%
0-08%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have QPR and Derby County played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

QPR, last 5
  1. D 1–1 at West Ham
  2. D 2–2 v Preston NE
  3. D 1–1 at West Brom
  4. D 0–0 at Charlton
  5. L 0–1 v Middlesbrough
QPR, last 5 at home
  1. D 2–2 v Preston NE
  2. L 0–1 v Middlesbrough
  3. W 2–1 v Cardiff
  4. D 0–0 v Bolton
  5. L 2–3 v Derby County
Derby County, last 5
  1. D 1–1 v Wrexham
  2. D 1–1 at Burnley
  3. L 1–2 v Birmingham
  4. L 0–1 v West Brom
  5. L 0–3 at West Ham
Derby County, last 5 away
  1. D 1–1 at Burnley
  2. L 0–3 at West Ham
  3. W 2–0 at Portsmouth
  4. L 1–2 at Charlton
  5. W 3–2 at QPR

Current streaks

Championship games only, runs of three or more. QPR and Derby County.

How QPR and Derby County compare this season

StatQPR (home, 5)Derby County (away, 5)Championship average
Over 1.560% (3/5)100% (5/5)77%
Over 2.560% (3/5)60% (3/5)61%
Over 3.540% (2/5)20% (1/5)36%
BTTS60% (3/5)60% (3/5)64%
Win %40% (2/5)20% (1/5)39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game1.601.001.44
Goals against per game1.002.001.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

TeamPosPtsP
QPR91711
Derby County23611

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: QPR 1 win, 0 draws, Derby County 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 25 Apr 2026ChampionshipQPR v Derby County2–3
Sat, 25 Oct 2025ChampionshipDerby County v QPR1–0
Fri, 14 Feb 2025ChampionshipQPR v Derby County4–0
Sat, 5 Oct 2024ChampionshipDerby County v QPR2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win QPR v Derby County?
Our model makes QPR the more likely winner at 41%: QPR 41%, draw 27%, Derby County 32%. Derby County lost 3 of 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in QPR v Derby County?
Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.6. Model expects 2.6 total goals.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have QPR and Derby County played recently?
Latest first: QPR DDDDL, Derby County DDLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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