Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC prediction

La Liga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: Real Madrid CF 4–1 Sevilla FC (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Real Madrid CF a 75% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–1 a 5% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (75%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (54%)Correct
Correct score: pick 2-0 (11%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (91%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (87%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (68%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (54%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Real Madrid CF 75% · Draw 15% · Sevilla FC 9%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 2.65–0.86. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla pre-match preview

Real Madrid (3rd, 21 pts) host Sevilla (6th, 14 pts) in the La Liga. Real Madrid have taken 12 points from their last 5 games (WWLWW) and Sevilla 8 points from 5 (DLWWD). Sevilla: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.

Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites at 75%, with Sevilla at 9%. Expected goals are 2.65 for Real Madrid and 0.86 for Sevilla, and the most likely score is 2-0 (11%).

Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 68%, against a La Liga average of 56%. In their last 4 meetings, Real Madrid won all 4; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Real Madrid to win is the model's clearest call at 75%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC?

Real Madrid CF are clear favourites at 75%, with Sevilla FC at 9%. Recent form: Real Madrid CF WWLWWW, Sevilla FC DLWWDL (latest first).

Real Madrid won all 5 home games this season.

Real Madrid CF

75%

Draw

15%

Sevilla FC

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 68%.

Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 Real Madrid home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	87%	13%	1.15
2.5 goals	68%	32%	1.47
3.5 goals	46%	54%	2.16

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Real Madrid CF score in about 93% of simulated outcomes and Sevilla FC in about 60%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 5 Sevilla away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.86
No	46%	2.17

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Real Madrid CF win	75%	1.33
Draw	15%	6.53
Sevilla FC win	9%	10.55
Over 2.5	68%	1.47
Under 2.5	32%	3.12

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Real Madrid CF goals (rows) × Sevilla FC goals (columns)
Real \ Sevilla	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
1	8%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%
2	11%	9%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	9%	8%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	6%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	3%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	5% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-0

11%

3-0

2-1

3-1

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Real Madrid and Sevilla played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Real Madrid, last 5

Real Madrid, last 5 at home

Sevilla, last 5

Sevilla, last 5 away

Current streaks

Sevilla: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Sevilla: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Sevilla: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Sevilla have not won in their last 3 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Real Madrid and Sevilla.

How Real Madrid and Sevilla compare this season

Stat	Real Madrid (home, 5)	Sevilla (away, 5)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	80% (4/5)	80% (4/5)	76%
Over 2.5	80% (4/5)	60% (3/5)	56%
Over 3.5	80% (4/5)	60% (3/5)	39%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	80% (4/5)	60%
Win %	100% (5/5)	40% (2/5)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	3.40	1.80	1.54
Goals against per game	0.60	1.80	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Real Madrid	3	21	9
Sevilla	6	14	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Real Madrid 4 wins, 0 draws, Sevilla 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 17 May 2026	La Liga	Sevilla v Real Madrid	0–1
Sat, 20 Dec 2025	La Liga	Real Madrid v Sevilla	2–0
Sun, 18 May 2025	La Liga	Sevilla v Real Madrid	0–2
Sun, 22 Dec 2024	La Liga	Real Madrid v Sevilla	4–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Real Madrid v Sevilla?: Our model makes Real Madrid the more likely winner at 75%: Real Madrid 75%, draw 15%, Sevilla 9%. Real Madrid won all 5 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Madrid v Sevilla?: Over 2.5 goals is 68% and under 2.5 is 32%, with expected goals of 3.5. Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 Real Madrid home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-0 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Real Madrid and Sevilla played recently?: Latest first: Real Madrid WWLWW, Sevilla DLWWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaRayo VallecanovElche	U3.579%	44%	28%	27%	69%	42%	21%	51%	42%	69%	21%	51%
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13:00 · La LigaLa LigaAthleticvGetafe	U3.590%	45%	33%	22%	53%	26%	10%	46%	26%	53%	10%	46%
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