La Liga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK
Valencia CF vs Villarreal CF prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): Valencia CF 30% · Draw 25% · Villarreal CF 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.29–1.60. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Valencia vs Villarreal preview
Valencia (19th, 6 pts) host Villarreal (12th, 9 pts) in the La Liga. Valencia have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (DDLWL) and Villarreal 7 points from 5 (LDWLW). Valencia have not won in their last 3 league games.
Our model favours Villarreal at 44% to Valencia's 30%. Expected goals are 1.29 for Valencia and 1.60 for Villarreal, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
The goal markets sit close to the La Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 56%. In their last 5 meetings, Valencia didn't win any, Villarreal won 3 and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win Valencia CF vs Villarreal CF?
Villarreal CF are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a Valencia CF win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Valencia CF DDLWLL, Villarreal CF LDWLWW (latest first).
Valencia lost 3 of 5 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 55% and Under 2.5 is 45%.
Over 2.5 in 6 of 9 Villarreal games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 79% | 21% | 1.27 |
| 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | 1.81 |
| 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | 3.05 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: Valencia CF score in about 73% of simulated outcomes and Villarreal CF in about 80%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 6 of 9 Villarreal games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 30% | 3.29 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 |
| Villarreal CF win | 44% | 2.26 |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.9 total goals.
| Valencia \ Villarreal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% |
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Valencia and Villarreal played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Valencia have not won in their last 3 league games.
La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Valencia and Villarreal.
How Valencia and Villarreal compare this season
| Stat | Valencia (home, 5) | Villarreal (away, 5) | La Liga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 40% (2/5) | 60% (3/5) | 76% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% (2/5) | 60% (3/5) | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% (2/5) | 60% (3/5) | 39% |
| BTTS | 20% (1/5) | 60% (3/5) | 60% |
| Win % | 0% (0/5) | 20% (1/5) | 44% home · 28% away |
| Goals for per game | 0.40 | 1.40 | 1.54 |
| Goals against per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | 1.54 |
La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
La Liga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 19 | 6 | 9 |
| Villarreal | 12 | 9 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Valencia 0 wins, 2 draws, Villarreal 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 22 Feb 2026 | La Liga | Villarreal v Valencia | 2–1 |
| Sat, 25 Oct 2025 | La Liga | Valencia v Villarreal | 0–2 |
| Sat, 15 Feb 2025 | La Liga | Villarreal v Valencia | 1–1 |
| Sat, 31 Aug 2024 | La Liga | Valencia v Villarreal | 1–1 |
| Sun, 17 Mar 2024 | La Liga | Villarreal v Valencia | 1–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Valencia v Villarreal?
- Our model makes Villarreal the more likely winner at 44%: Valencia 30%, draw 25%, Villarreal 44%. Valencia lost 3 of 5 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Valencia v Villarreal?
- Over 2.5 goals is 55% and under 2.5 is 45%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 6 of 9 Villarreal games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Valencia and Villarreal played recently?
- Latest first: Valencia DDLWL, Villarreal LDWLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Valencia CF
- Villarreal CF
- La Liga predictions
- La Liga table
- La Liga Home win
- La Liga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming La Liga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.579% | 44% | 28% | 27% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 51% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.583% | 41% | 24% | 35% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 58% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.581% | 69% | 19% | 12% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 53% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.590% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 26% | 53% | 10% | 46% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.577% | 38% | 26% | 35% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 55% |
17:30 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.581% | 51% | 24% | 25% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 56% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 51% |
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.581% | 27% | 25% | 48% | 57% | 81% | 35% | 59% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.577% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 45% | 71% | 23% | 52% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.576% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 53% |