La Liga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK
Full-time: Valencia CF 0–0 Athletic Club (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 29% chance, and the exact score 0–0 a 10% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.
2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick away (36%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (68%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 2.5: pick under (58%)Correct
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (79%)Correct
- Both teams to score: pick yes (52%)Incorrect
- Correct score: pick 1-1 (14%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick 12 (71%)Incorrect
Published before kick-off, unchanged
Valencia CF vs Athletic Club prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Valencia CF 35% · Draw 29% · Athletic Club 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.17–1.18. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Valencia vs Athletic pre-match preview
Valencia (19th, 6 pts) host Athletic (13th, 9 pts) in the La Liga. Valencia have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (DLWLL) and Athletic 8 points from 5 (DDWWL). Athletic have not won in their last 4 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Valencia 35%, Athletic 36%. Expected goals are 1.17 for Valencia and 1.18 for Athletic, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).
The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 58%, while 56% of La Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Valencia won 2 and Athletic won 2; none had over 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win Valencia CF vs Athletic Club?
This is close to a coin flip: Valencia CF 35%, Athletic Club 36%, with the draw at 29%. Recent form: Valencia CF DLWLLL, Athletic Club DDWWLL (latest first).
Valencia lost 3 of 5 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 58%; Over 2.5 is 42%.
Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Athletic away games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 68% | 32% | 1.46 |
| 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | 2.41 |
| 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | 4.77 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Valencia CF score in about 69% of simulated outcomes and Athletic Club in about 69%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 12 of 19 Valencia home games last season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 |
| Athletic Club win | 36% | 2.80 |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.3 total goals.
| Valencia \ Athletic | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Valencia and Athletic played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Athletic have not won in their last 4 league games.
- Valencia have not won in their last 3 league games.
La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Valencia and Athletic.
How Valencia and Athletic compare this season
| Stat | Valencia (home, 5) | Athletic (away, 4) | La Liga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 40% (2/5) | 75% (3/4) | 76% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% (2/5) | 25% (1/4) | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% (2/5) | 25% (1/4) | 39% |
| BTTS | 20% (1/5) | 25% (1/4) | 60% |
| Win % | 0% (0/5) | 25% (1/4) | 44% home · 28% away |
| Goals for per game | 0.40 | 0.75 | 1.54 |
| Goals against per game | 1.80 | 1.25 | 1.54 |
La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
La Liga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 19 | 6 | 9 |
| Athletic | 13 | 9 | 8 |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Valencia 2 wins, 0 draws, Athletic 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 4; both teams scored in 0 of 4.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 10 May 2026 | La Liga | Athletic v Valencia | 0–1 |
| Sat, 20 Sept 2025 | La Liga | Valencia v Athletic | 2–0 |
| Sun, 18 May 2025 | La Liga | Valencia v Athletic | 0–1 |
| Wed, 28 Aug 2024 | La Liga | Athletic v Valencia | 1–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Valencia v Athletic?
- Our model makes Athletic the more likely winner at 36%: Valencia 35%, draw 29%, Athletic 36%. Valencia lost 3 of 5 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Valencia v Athletic?
- Over 2.5 goals is 42% and under 2.5 is 58%, with expected goals of 2.3. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Athletic away games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Valencia and Athletic played recently?
- Latest first: Valencia DLWLL, Athletic DDWWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Valencia CF
- Athletic Club
- La Liga predictions
- La Liga table
- La Liga Home win
- La Liga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming La Liga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.579% | 44% | 28% | 27% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 51% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.583% | 41% | 24% | 35% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 58% |
17:30 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.579% | 30% | 25% | 44% | 55% | 79% | 33% | 56% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.581% | 69% | 19% | 12% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 53% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.590% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 26% | 53% | 10% | 46% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.577% | 38% | 26% | 35% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 55% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574%✓ | 48%✓ | 26%✕ | 25%✕ | 48%✕ | 73%✓ | 26%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578%✕ | 62%✕ | 24%✓ | 14%✕ | 43%✓ | 70%✓ | 22%✓ | 48%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.581%✓ | 61%✕ | 22%✓ | 18%✕ | 58%✓ | 81%✓ | 36%✓ | 54%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.582%✓ | 39%✓ | 30%✕ | 31%✕ | 37%✕ | 65%✓ | 18%✕ | 50%✕ |
FT · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.575%✓ | 38%✕ | 27%✕ | 35%✓ | 50%✕ | 75%✓ | 28%✕ | 57%✕ |