Real Racing Club de Santander vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona prediction

La Liga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:15 UK

Real Racing Club de Santander vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:15 UK): Real Racing Club de Santander 41% · Draw 24% · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.65–1.50. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Santander vs Espanyol preview

Santander (17th, 8 pts) host Espanyol (16th, 8 pts) in the La Liga. Santander have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LDLLW) and Espanyol 4 points from 5 (LDLLW). Santander: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Santander 41%, Espanyol 35%. Expected goals are 1.65 for Santander and 1.50 for Espanyol, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

The goal markets sit close to the La Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 58%.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Real Racing Club de Santander vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona?

This is close to a coin flip: Real Racing Club de Santander 41%, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 35%, with the draw at 24%. Recent form: Real Racing Club de Santander LDLLWL, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona LDLLWD (latest first).

Espanyol have not won in their last 4 league games.

Real Racing Club de Santander

41%

Draw

24%

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

35%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 61% and Under 2.5 is 39%.

Over 2.5 in all 4 Santander home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	83%	17%	1.21
2.5 goals	61%	39%	1.64
3.5 goals	39%	61%	2.59

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: Real Racing Club de Santander score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and RCD Espanyol de Barcelona in about 78%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 4 Santander home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	58%	1.74
No	42%	2.36

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Real Racing Club de Santander win	41%	2.44
Draw	24%	4.11
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win	35%	2.88
Over 2.5	61%	1.64
Under 2.5	39%	2.56

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Real Racing Club de Santander goals (rows) × RCD Espanyol de Barcelona goals (columns)
Real \ RCD	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	6%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	7%	11%	8%	4%	2%	0%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	0%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

1-2

1-0

2-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Santander and Espanyol played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Santander, last 5

Santander, last 5 at home

Espanyol, last 5

Espanyol, last 5 away

Current streaks

Santander: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Espanyol have not won in their last 4 league games.
Santander have not won in their last 4 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Santander and Espanyol.

How Santander and Espanyol compare this season

Stat	Santander (home, 4)	Espanyol (away, 4)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	100% (4/4)	76%
Over 2.5	100% (4/4)	50% (2/4)	56%
Over 3.5	75% (3/4)	0% (0/4)	39%
BTTS	100% (4/4)	75% (3/4)	60%
Win %	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	2.25	1.25	1.54
Goals against per game	1.75	1.25	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Santander	17	8	9
Espanyol	16	8	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Santander 1 win, 0 draws, Espanyol 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 2; both teams scored in 0 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 10 Feb 2024	SP2	Santander v Espanyol	2–0
Sat, 19 Aug 2023	SP2	Espanyol v Santander	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Santander v Espanyol?: Our model makes Santander the more likely winner at 41%: Santander 41%, draw 24%, Espanyol 35%. Espanyol have not won in their last 4 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Santander v Espanyol?: Over 2.5 goals is 61% and under 2.5 is 39%, with expected goals of 3.2. Over 2.5 in all 4 Santander home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Santander and Espanyol played recently?: Latest first: Santander LDLLW, Espanyol LDLLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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