La Liga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:15 UK
Full-time: Villarreal CF 0–0 Elche CF (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:15 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 21% chance, and the exact score 0–0 a 4% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 5.
2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick home (59%)Incorrect
- Both teams to score: pick yes (57%)Incorrect
- Correct score: pick 2-1 (10%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick 1X (80%)Correct
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (84%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 2.5: pick over (63%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (59%)Correct
Published before kick-off, unchanged
Villarreal CF vs Elche CF prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:15 UK): Villarreal CF 59% · Draw 21% · Elche CF 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.10–1.16. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Villarreal vs Elche pre-match preview
Villarreal (12th, 9 pts) host Elche (18th, 7 pts) in the La Liga. Villarreal have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (WLWWL) and Elche 5 points from 5 (DWLDL). Elche are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Our model makes Villarreal clear favourites at 59%, with Elche at 20%. Expected goals are 2.10 for Villarreal and 1.16 for Elche, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).
The goal markets sit close to the La Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 57%. In their last 4 meetings, Villarreal won 3 and Elche won 1; all had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 63%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win Villarreal CF vs Elche CF?
Villarreal CF are clear favourites at 59%, with Elche CF at 20%. Recent form: Villarreal CF WLWWLL, Elche CF DWLDLL (latest first).
Villarreal won 15 of 19 home games last season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 63% and Under 2.5 is 37%.
Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Villarreal home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 84% | 16% | 1.19 |
| 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | 1.58 |
| 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | 2.43 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: Villarreal CF score in about 88% of simulated outcomes and Elche CF in about 69%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 4 of 5 Elche away games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.69 |
| Elche CF win | 20% | 5.01 |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.3 total goals.
| Villarreal \ Elche | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 8% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 6% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Villarreal and Elche played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Elche are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Villarreal and Elche.
How Villarreal and Elche compare this season
| Stat | Villarreal (home, 4) | Elche (away, 5) | La Liga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% (3/4) | 80% (4/5) | 76% |
| Over 2.5 | 75% (3/4) | 40% (2/5) | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% (2/4) | 40% (2/5) | 39% |
| BTTS | 75% (3/4) | 80% (4/5) | 60% |
| Win % | 25% (1/4) | 20% (1/5) | 44% home · 28% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.54 |
| Goals against per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.54 |
La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
La Liga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| Elche | 18 | 7 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Villarreal 3 wins, 0 draws, Elche 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 8 Mar 2026 | La Liga | Villarreal v Elche | 2–1 |
| Sat, 3 Jan 2026 | La Liga | Elche v Villarreal | 1–3 |
| Sat, 4 Feb 2023 | La Liga | Elche v Villarreal | 3–1 |
| Sun, 4 Sept 2022 | La Liga | Villarreal v Elche | 4–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Villarreal v Elche?
- Our model makes Villarreal the more likely winner at 59%: Villarreal 59%, draw 21%, Elche 20%. Villarreal won 15 of 19 home games last season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Villarreal v Elche?
- Over 2.5 goals is 63% and under 2.5 is 37%, with expected goals of 3.3. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Villarreal home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Villarreal and Elche played recently?
- Latest first: Villarreal WLWWL, Elche DWLDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Villarreal CF
- Elche CF
- La Liga predictions
- La Liga table
- La Liga Home win
- La Liga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming La Liga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.579% | 44% | 28% | 27% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 51% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.583% | 41% | 24% | 35% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 58% |
17:30 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.579% | 30% | 25% | 44% | 55% | 79% | 33% | 56% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.581% | 69% | 19% | 12% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 53% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.590% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 26% | 53% | 10% | 46% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.577% | 38% | 26% | 35% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 55% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574%✓ | 48%✓ | 26%✕ | 25%✕ | 48%✕ | 73%✓ | 26%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578%✕ | 62%✕ | 24%✓ | 14%✕ | 43%✓ | 70%✓ | 22%✓ | 48%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.581%✓ | 61%✕ | 22%✓ | 18%✕ | 58%✓ | 81%✓ | 36%✓ | 54%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.582%✓ | 39%✓ | 30%✕ | 31%✕ | 37%✕ | 65%✓ | 18%✕ | 50%✕ |
FT · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.575%✓ | 38%✕ | 27%✕ | 35%✓ | 50%✕ | 75%✓ | 28%✕ | 57%✕ |