SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs AZ prediction

Eredivisie · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UK

Full-time: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 2–2 AZ (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 21% chance, and the exact score 2–2 a 6% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 5.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (56%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (86%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (66%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (56%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (60%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-2 (10%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (79%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs AZ prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UK): SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 22% · Draw 21% · AZ 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%. Most likely score: 1-2. Expected goals 1.29–2.12. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (7%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Cambuur vs AZ pre-match preview

Cambuur (14th, 9 pts) host AZ (2nd, 20 pts) in the Eredivisie. Cambuur have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (WDWDL) and AZ 10 points from 5 (LWDWW). Cambuur are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.

Our model makes AZ clear favourites at 56%, with Cambuur at 22%. Expected goals are 1.29 for Cambuur and 2.12 for AZ, and the most likely score is 1-2 (10%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 60%, against 72% across the Eredivisie. In their last 4 meetings, Cambuur didn't win any, AZ won 3 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 66%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs AZ?

AZ are clear favourites at 56%, with SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden at 22%. Recent form: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden WDWDLL, AZ LWDWWW (latest first).

AZ won 3 of 5 away games this season.

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

22%

Draw

21%

56%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 66%.

Over 2.5 in all 5 Cambuur home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	86%	14%	1.17
2.5 goals	66%	34%	1.51
3.5 goals	44%	56%	2.26

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden score in about 73% of simulated outcomes and AZ in about 88%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 6 of 9 Cambuur games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	60%	1.66
No	40%	2.52

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win	22%	4.46
Draw	21%	4.67
AZ win	56%	1.78
Over 2.5	66%	1.51
Under 2.5	34%	2.95

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden goals (rows) × AZ goals (columns)
SC \ AZ	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	7%	7%	5%	3%	1%
1	4%	9%	10%	7%	4%	2%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%
3	1%	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%
4	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-2

10%

1-1

0-2

1-3

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Cambuur and AZ played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Cambuur, last 5

Cambuur, last 5 at home

AZ, last 5

AZ, last 5 away

Current streaks

Cambuur are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.

Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Cambuur and AZ.

How Cambuur and AZ compare this season

Stat	Cambuur (home, 5)	AZ (away, 5)	Eredivisie average
Over 1.5	100% (5/5)	100% (5/5)	91%
Over 2.5	100% (5/5)	60% (3/5)	75%
Over 3.5	80% (4/5)	60% (3/5)	63%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	60% (3/5)	72%
Win %	20% (1/5)	60% (3/5)	32% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	1.60	2.20	1.92
Goals against per game	3.00	1.40	1.92

Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Eredivisie table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Cambuur	14	9	9
AZ	2	20	9

Full Eredivisie table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Cambuur 0 wins, 1 draw, AZ 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 25 Feb 2023	Eredivisie	AZ v Cambuur	2–1
Sun, 28 Aug 2022	Eredivisie	Cambuur v AZ	0–1
Sat, 22 Jan 2022	Eredivisie	AZ v Cambuur	0–0
Sun, 3 Oct 2021	Eredivisie	Cambuur v AZ	1–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Cambuur v AZ?: Our model makes AZ the more likely winner at 56%: Cambuur 22%, draw 21%, AZ 56%. AZ won 3 of 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cambuur v AZ?: Over 2.5 goals is 66% and under 2.5 is 34%, with expected goals of 3.4. Over 2.5 in all 5 Cambuur home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-2 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Cambuur and AZ played recently?: Latest first: Cambuur WDWDL, AZ LWDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

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