AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland AFC prediction

Premier League · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Full-time: AFC Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland AFC (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave AFC Bournemouth a 54% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–0 a 10% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (54%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (73%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (53%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (75%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (54%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-0 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (79%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland AFC prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): AFC Bournemouth 54% · Draw 25% · Sunderland AFC 21%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.64–0.92. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland pre-match preview

Bournemouth (15th, 6 pts) host Sunderland (20th, 4 pts) in the Premier League. Bournemouth have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (LLDDD) and Sunderland 4 points from 5 (LLLDW). Sunderland: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model makes Bournemouth clear favourites at 54%, with Sunderland at 21%. Expected goals are 1.64 for Bournemouth and 0.92 for Sunderland, and the most likely score is 1-0 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 54%.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland AFC?

AFC Bournemouth are clear favourites at 54%, with Sunderland AFC at 21%. Recent form: AFC Bournemouth LLDDDL, Sunderland AFC LLLDWL (latest first).

Sunderland lost 3 of 4 away games this season.

AFC Bournemouth

54%

Draw

25%

Sunderland AFC

21%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 47% and Under 2.5 is 53%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Bournemouth home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	73%	27%	1.37
2.5 goals	47%	53%	2.13
3.5 goals	25%	75%	3.93

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: AFC Bournemouth score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and Sunderland AFC in about 60%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Sunderland away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.84
No	46%	2.19

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AFC Bournemouth win	54%	1.85
Draw	25%	3.93
Sunderland AFC win	21%	4.85
Over 2.5	47%	2.13
Under 2.5	53%	1.89

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AFC Bournemouth goals (rows) × Sunderland AFC goals (columns)
AFC \ Sunderland	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	12%	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	6%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

12%

1-1

12%

2-0

10%

2-1

10%

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bournemouth and Sunderland played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bournemouth, last 5

Bournemouth, last 5 at home

Sunderland, last 5

Sunderland, last 5 away

Current streaks

Sunderland: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Sunderland have not won in their last 5 league games.
Sunderland have lost each of their last 4 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Bournemouth and Sunderland.

How Bournemouth and Sunderland compare this season

Stat	Bournemouth (home, 4)	Sunderland (away, 4)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (4/4)	76%
Over 2.5	25% (1/4)	50% (2/4)	54%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	36%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	75% (3/4)	53%
Win %	25% (1/4)	0% (0/4)	40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game	1.25	1.25	1.45
Goals against per game	1.00	2.50	1.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Bournemouth	15	6	7
Sunderland	20	4	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Bournemouth 0 wins, 1 draw, Sunderland 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 2; both teams scored in 2 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 28 Feb 2026	Premier League	Bournemouth v Sunderland	1–1
Sat, 29 Nov 2025	Premier League	Sunderland v Bournemouth	3–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bournemouth v Sunderland?: Our model makes Bournemouth the more likely winner at 54%: Bournemouth 54%, draw 25%, Sunderland 21%. Sunderland lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bournemouth v Sunderland?: Over 2.5 goals is 47% and under 2.5 is 53%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Bournemouth home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bournemouth and Sunderland played recently?: Latest first: Bournemouth LLDDD, Sunderland LLLDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueMan UnitedvBournemouth	O1.582%	44%	25%	31%	82%	59%	37%	60%	59%	82%	37%	60%
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