Arsenal FC vs Everton FC prediction

Premier League · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Arsenal FC vs Everton FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Arsenal FC 64% · Draw 24% · Everton FC 12%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.79–0.66. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Arsenal vs Everton preview

Arsenal (2nd, 18 pts) host Everton (8th, 10 pts) in the Premier League. Arsenal have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (DWWWL) and Everton 6 points from 5 (LDWDD).

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 64%, with Everton at 12%. Expected goals are 1.79 for Arsenal and 0.66 for Everton, and the most likely score is 1-0 (15%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 56%, while 54% of Premier League matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Arsenal won 3, Everton didn't win any and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Arsenal to win is the model's clearest call at 64%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Arsenal FC vs Everton FC?

Arsenal FC are clear favourites at 64%, with Everton FC at 12%. Recent form: Arsenal FC DWWWLW, Everton FC LDWDDD (latest first).

Arsenal won all 3 home games this season.

Arsenal FC

64%

Draw

24%

Everton FC

12%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 56%; Over 2.5 is 44%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Everton games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	71%	29%	1.41
2.5 goals	44%	56%	2.26
3.5 goals	23%	77%	4.33

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Arsenal FC score in about 83% of simulated outcomes and Everton FC in about 49%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 2 of 3 Arsenal home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.95
No	49%	2.05

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Arsenal FC win	64%	1.57
Draw	24%	4.20
Everton FC win	12%	8.05
Over 2.5	44%	2.26
Under 2.5	56%	1.79

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:X WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Arsenal FC goals (rows) × Everton FC goals (columns)
Arsenal \ Everton	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%
1	15%	11%	3%	1%	0%	0%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%
3	8%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%
4	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

15%

2-0

14%

1-1

11%

0-0

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Arsenal and Everton played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Arsenal, last 5

Arsenal, last 5 at home

Everton, last 5

Everton, last 5 away

How Arsenal and Everton compare this season

Stat	Arsenal (home, 3)	Everton (away, 3)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	76%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	54%
Over 3.5	0% (0/3)	33% (1/3)	36%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	53%
Win %	100% (3/3)	0% (0/3)	40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game	2.33	1.00	1.45
Goals against per game	0.67	1.00	1.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Arsenal	2	18	7
Everton	8	10	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Arsenal 3 wins, 2 draws, Everton 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 14 Mar 2026	Premier League	Arsenal v Everton	2–0
Sat, 20 Dec 2025	Premier League	Everton v Arsenal	0–1
Sat, 5 Apr 2025	Premier League	Everton v Arsenal	1–1
Sat, 14 Dec 2024	Premier League	Arsenal v Everton	0–0
Sun, 19 May 2024	Premier League	Arsenal v Everton	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Arsenal v Everton?: Our model makes Arsenal the more likely winner at 64%: Arsenal 64%, draw 24%, Everton 12%. Arsenal won all 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Everton?: Over 2.5 goals is 44% and under 2.5 is 56%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Everton games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 15%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Arsenal and Everton played recently?: Latest first: Arsenal DWWWL, Everton LDWDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgPremier LeagueAston VillavMan City	O1.581%	27%	25%	48%	81%	57%	35%	59%	57%	81%	35%	59%
15:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueCoventry CityvFulham	O1.575%	36%	27%	37%	75%	50%	28%	57%	50%	75%	28%	57%
17:30 · Premier LgPremier LeagueChelseavTottenham	O1.582%	54%	24%	22%	82%	60%	37%	59%	60%	82%	37%	59%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueMan UnitedvBournemouth	O1.582%	44%	25%	31%	82%	59%	37%	60%	59%	82%	37%	60%
14:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueHull CityvBrentford	O1.576%	22%	25%	53%	76%	52%	30%	56%	52%	76%	30%	56%
14:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueLiverpoolvBrighton	O1.583%	50%	24%	26%	83%	61%	38%	59%	61%	83%	38%	59%

Other matches the same day