Nottingham Forest FC vs Arsenal FC prediction

Premier League · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UK

Full-time: Nottingham Forest FC 0–1 Arsenal FC (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Arsenal FC a 54% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 16% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (54%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (51%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 0-1 (16%)Correct
Double chance: pick X2 (81%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (65%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (63%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (82%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Nottingham Forest FC vs Arsenal FC prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UK): Nottingham Forest FC 19% · Draw 28% · Arsenal FC 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%. Most likely score: 0-1. Expected goals 0.74–1.45. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 0-1 (16%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Nottingham vs Arsenal pre-match preview

Nottingham (19th, 5 pts) host Arsenal (2nd, 18 pts) in the Premier League. Nottingham have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LLWDD) and Arsenal 12 points from 5 (WWLWW), so Arsenal arrive in clearly better form. Nottingham have lost each of their last 3 league games.

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 54%, with Nottingham at 19%. Expected goals are 0.74 for Nottingham and 1.45 for Arsenal, and the most likely score is 0-1 (16%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 63%, while 54% of Premier League matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Nottingham didn't win any, Arsenal won 2 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 63%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Nottingham Forest FC vs Arsenal FC?

Arsenal FC are clear favourites at 54%, with Nottingham Forest FC at 19%. Recent form: Nottingham Forest FC LLWDDL, Arsenal FC WWLWWW (latest first).

Arsenal won 3 of 4 away games this season.

Nottingham Forest FC

19%

Draw

28%

Arsenal FC

54%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 63%; Over 2.5 is 37%.

Under 2.5 in all 4 Nottingham home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	65%	35%	1.55
2.5 goals	37%	63%	2.67
3.5 goals	18%	82%	5.61

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Nottingham Forest FC score in about 52% of simulated outcomes and Arsenal FC in about 77%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.96
No	49%	2.04

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Nottingham Forest FC win	19%	5.37
Draw	28%	3.61
Arsenal FC win	54%	1.86
Over 2.5	37%	2.67
Under 2.5	63%	1.60

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Nottingham Forest FC goals (rows) × Arsenal FC goals (columns)
Nottingham \ Arsenal	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	12%	16%	12%	6%	2%	1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	2%	0%
2	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	0%
3	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

0-1

16%

1-1

12%

0-2

12%

0-0

12%

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Nottingham and Arsenal played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Nottingham, last 5

Nottingham, last 5 at home

Arsenal, last 5

Arsenal, last 5 away

Current streaks

Nottingham have lost each of their last 3 league games.
Nottingham have not won in their last 3 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Nottingham and Arsenal.

How Nottingham and Arsenal compare this season

Stat	Nottingham (home, 4)	Arsenal (away, 4)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	0% (0/4)	50% (2/4)	76%
Over 2.5	0% (0/4)	25% (1/4)	54%
Over 3.5	0% (0/4)	0% (0/4)	36%
BTTS	0% (0/4)	0% (0/4)	53%
Win %	0% (0/4)	75% (3/4)	40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game	0.00	1.00	1.45
Goals against per game	0.75	0.75	1.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Nottingham	19	5	7
Arsenal	2	18	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Nottingham 0 wins, 2 draws, Arsenal 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 0 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 17 Jan 2026	Premier League	Nottingham v Arsenal	0–0
Sat, 13 Sept 2025	Premier League	Arsenal v Nottingham	3–0
Wed, 26 Feb 2025	Premier League	Nottingham v Arsenal	0–0
Sat, 23 Nov 2024	Premier League	Arsenal v Nottingham	3–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Nottingham v Arsenal?: Our model makes Arsenal the more likely winner at 54%: Nottingham 19%, draw 28%, Arsenal 54%. Arsenal won 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nottingham v Arsenal?: Over 2.5 goals is 37% and under 2.5 is 63%, with expected goals of 2.2. Under 2.5 in all 4 Nottingham home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 0-1 at 16%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Nottingham and Arsenal played recently?: Latest first: Nottingham LLWDD, Arsenal WWLWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgPremier LeagueAston VillavMan City	O1.581%	27%	25%	48%	81%	57%	35%	59%	57%	81%	35%	59%
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15:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueArsenalvEverton	U3.577%	64%	24%	12%	71%	44%	23%	51%	44%	71%	23%	51%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueMan UnitedvBournemouth	O1.582%	44%	25%	31%	82%	59%	37%	60%	59%	82%	37%	60%
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