ProbaPredict

Manchester United FC crest Manchester United FC vs AFC Bournemouth AFC Bournemouth crest prediction

Premier League · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Manchester United FC vs AFC Bournemouth prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Manchester United FC 44% · Draw 25% · AFC Bournemouth 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.68–1.40. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Man United vs Bournemouth preview

Man United (13th, 7 pts) host Bournemouth (15th, 6 pts) in the Premier League. Man United have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (LDLDD) and Bournemouth 5 points from 5 (WLLDD). Man United have not won in their last 5 league games.

Our model favours Man United at 44% to Bournemouth's 31%. Expected goals are 1.68 for Man United and 1.40 for Bournemouth, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 60%. In their last 5 meetings, Man United didn't win any, Bournemouth won 1 and 4 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Manchester United FC vs AFC Bournemouth?

Manchester United FC are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a AFC Bournemouth win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Manchester United FC LDLDDL, AFC Bournemouth WLLDDD (latest first).

Bournemouth lost 2 of 3 away games this season.

Manchester United FC44%
Draw25%
AFC Bournemouth31%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Bournemouth away games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals82%18%1.22
2.5 goals59%41%1.68
3.5 goals37%63%2.70

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: Manchester United FC score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and AFC Bournemouth in about 75%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Bournemouth away games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes60%1.68
No40%2.47

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Manchester United FC win44%2.30
Draw25%3.95
AFC Bournemouth win31%3.21
Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.46

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Manchester United FC goals (rows) × AFC Bournemouth goals (columns)
Manchester \ AFC012345
05%6%4%2%1%0%
17%12%8%4%1%0%
27%9%6%3%1%0%
34%5%4%2%1%0%
42%2%2%1%0%0%
51%1%1%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-112%
2-19%
1-28%
1-07%
2-07%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Man United and Bournemouth played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Man United, last 5
  1. L 1–4 at Como 1907
  2. D 1–1 at Leeds
  3. L 0–2 at Atleti
  4. D 1–1 v Tottenham
  5. D 1–1 at Fulham
Man United, last 5 at home
  1. D 1–1 v Tottenham
  2. L 0–1 v Man City
  3. W 4–0 v Sabah FK
  4. W 5–2 v Ipswich Town
  5. W 3–2 v Nottingham
Bournemouth, last 5
  1. W 2–0 v Sunderland
  2. L 1–5 at Chelsea
  3. L 0–1 v Liverpool
  4. D 2–2 v Brentford
  5. D 2–2 at Newcastle
Bournemouth, last 5 away
  1. L 1–5 at Chelsea
  2. D 2–2 at Newcastle
  3. L 1–2 at Man City
  4. D 1–1 at Nottingham
  5. W 1–0 at Fulham

Current streaks

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Man United and Bournemouth.

How Man United and Bournemouth compare this season

StatMan United (home, 3)Bournemouth (away, 3)Premier League average
Over 1.567% (2/3)100% (3/3)76%
Over 2.533% (1/3)100% (3/3)54%
Over 3.533% (1/3)67% (2/3)36%
BTTS67% (2/3)100% (3/3)53%
Win %33% (1/3)0% (0/3)40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game2.001.331.45
Goals against per game1.333.001.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

TeamPosPtsP
Man United1377
Bournemouth1567

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Man United 0 wins, 4 draws, Bournemouth 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Fri, 20 Mar 2026Premier LeagueBournemouth v Man United2–2
Mon, 15 Dec 2025Premier LeagueMan United v Bournemouth4–4
Sun, 27 Apr 2025Premier LeagueBournemouth v Man United1–1
Sun, 22 Dec 2024Premier LeagueMan United v Bournemouth0–3
Sat, 13 Apr 2024Premier LeagueBournemouth v Man United2–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Man United v Bournemouth?
Our model makes Man United the more likely winner at 44%: Man United 44%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 31%. Bournemouth lost 2 of 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Man United v Bournemouth?
Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in all 3 Bournemouth away games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Man United and Bournemouth played recently?
Latest first: Man United LDLDD, Bournemouth WLLDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

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Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
01:00 · BrasileirãoSantos FC crestSantosEC Bahia crestBahiaO1.578%42%26%32%54%78%32%53%
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13:30 · EredivisieNEC crestNECFC Groningen crestGroningenO1.585%52%22%25%65%85%43%60%