Leeds United FC vs Manchester United FC prediction

Premier League · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Full-time: Leeds United FC 1–1 Manchester United FC (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 26% chance, and the exact score 1–1 a 13% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (43%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (76%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (51%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (71%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (57%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Correct
Double chance: pick 12 (74%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Leeds United FC vs Manchester United FC prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Leeds United FC 43% · Draw 26% · Manchester United FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.48–1.23. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Leeds vs Man United pre-match preview

Leeds (7th, 10 pts) host Man United (13th, 7 pts) in the Premier League. Leeds have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LDWDD) and Man United 5 points from 5 (LDDLW). Man United have not won in their last 5 league games.

Our model favours Leeds at 43% to Man United's 31%. Expected goals are 1.48 for Leeds and 1.23 for Man United, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 57%. In their last 4 meetings, Leeds won 1, Man United won 1 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Leeds United FC vs Manchester United FC?

Leeds United FC are favoured at 43%, but the draw and a Manchester United FC win together still account for 57%. Recent form: Leeds United FC LDWDDW, Manchester United FC LDDLWD (latest first).

Man United have not won in their last 5 league games.

Leeds United FC

43%

Draw

26%

Manchester United FC

31%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 51% and Under 2.5 is 49%.

Over 2.5 in 13 of 19 Man United away games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	76%	24%	1.32
2.5 goals	51%	49%	1.96
3.5 goals	29%	71%	3.47

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: Leeds United FC score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and Manchester United FC in about 71%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Leeds home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	57%	1.76
No	43%	2.32

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Leeds United FC win	43%	2.34
Draw	26%	3.79
Manchester United FC win	31%	3.23
Over 2.5	51%	1.96
Under 2.5	49%	2.04

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Leeds United FC goals (rows) × Manchester United FC goals (columns)
Leeds \ Manchester	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	9%	13%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	4%	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

2-1

0-1

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Leeds and Man United played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Leeds, last 5

Leeds, last 5 at home

Man United, last 5

Man United, last 5 away

Current streaks

Man United have not won in their last 5 league games.
Man United: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Man United: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Man United: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Man United are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Leeds have not won in their last 3 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Leeds and Man United.

How Leeds and Man United compare this season

Stat	Leeds (home, 4)	Man United (away, 4)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (4/4)	76%
Over 2.5	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	54%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	36%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	53%
Win %	25% (1/4)	0% (0/4)	40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game	1.50	1.00	1.45
Goals against per game	0.75	1.50	1.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Leeds	7	10	7
Man United	13	7	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Leeds 1 win, 2 draws, Man United 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Mon, 13 Apr 2026	Premier League	Man United v Leeds	1–2
Sun, 4 Jan 2026	Premier League	Leeds v Man United	1–1
Sun, 12 Feb 2023	Premier League	Leeds v Man United	0–2
Wed, 8 Feb 2023	Premier League	Man United v Leeds	2–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Leeds v Man United?: Our model makes Leeds the more likely winner at 43%: Leeds 43%, draw 26%, Man United 31%. Man United have not won in their last 5 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leeds v Man United?: Over 2.5 goals is 51% and under 2.5 is 49%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 13 of 19 Man United away games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Leeds and Man United played recently?: Latest first: Leeds LDWDD, Man United LDDLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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