ProbaPredict

Como 1907 crest Como 1907 vs Manchester United FC Manchester United FC crest prediction

Champions League · Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK

Full-time: Como 1907 4–1 Manchester United FC (Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Como 1907 a 41% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–1 a 2% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Como 1907 vs Manchester United FC prediction (Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK): Como 1907 41% · Draw 26% · Manchester United FC 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.48–1.29. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Como 1907 vs Man United pre-match preview

Como 1907 host Man United in the Champions League. Como 1907 have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WLDLW) and Man United 3 points from 5 (DLDDL). Man United: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 Champions League games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Como 1907 41%, Man United 33%. Expected goals are 1.48 for Como 1907 and 1.29 for Man United, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 52%, below the Champions League rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Champions League match.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Como 1907 vs Manchester United FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Como 1907 41%, Manchester United FC 33%, with the draw at 26%. Recent form: Como 1907 WLDLWW, Manchester United FC DLDDLW (latest first).

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Como 190741%
Draw26%
Manchester United FC33%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 52% and Under 2.5 is 48%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Como 1907 games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals77%23%1.30
2.5 goals52%48%1.92
3.5 goals30%70%3.33

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Como 1907 score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and Manchester United FC in about 73%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Como 1907 games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes55%1.82
No45%2.22

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Como 1907 win41%2.42
Draw26%3.82
Manchester United FC win33%3.07
Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:XWhatsAppTelegramFacebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Como 1907 goals (rows) × Manchester United FC goals (columns)
Como \ Manchester012345
07%8%5%2%1%0%
19%12%8%3%1%0%
27%9%6%2%1%0%
33%4%3%1%0%0%
41%2%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-112%
1-09%
2-19%
1-28%
0-18%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Como 1907 and Man United played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Como 1907, last 5
  1. W 3–1 at Fiorentina
  2. L 2–3 at Feyenoord
  3. D 0–0 v Roma
  4. L 0–2 at Frosinone
  5. W 2–1 v Parma
Como 1907, last 5 at home
  1. D 0–0 v Roma
  2. W 2–1 v Parma
  3. W 4–1 v Leipzig
  4. W 1–0 v Parma
  5. D 0–0 v Napoli
Man United, last 5
  1. D 1–1 at Leeds
  2. L 0–2 at Atleti
  3. D 1–1 v Tottenham
  4. D 1–1 at Fulham
  5. L 0–1 v Man City
Man United, last 5 away
  1. D 1–1 at Leeds
  2. L 0–2 at Atleti
  3. D 1–1 at Fulham
  4. D 2–2 at Everton
  5. L 0–2 at Hull City

Current streaks

Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Como 1907 and Man United.

How Como 1907 and Man United compare this season

StatComo 1907 (home, 2)Man United (away, 2)Champions League average
Over 1.5100% (2/2)100% (2/2)87%
Over 2.5100% (2/2)50% (1/2)74%
Over 3.5100% (2/2)50% (1/2)63%
BTTS100% (2/2)50% (1/2)67%
Win %100% (2/2)0% (0/2)59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game4.000.502.05
Goals against per game1.003.002.05

Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Como 1907 v Man United?
Our model makes Como 1907 the more likely winner at 41%: Como 1907 41%, draw 26%, Man United 33%. Model expects 2.8 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Como 1907 v Man United?
Over 2.5 goals is 52% and under 2.5 is 48%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in all 3 Como 1907 games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Como 1907 and Man United played recently?
Latest first: Como 1907 WLDLW, Man United DLDDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Wed, 21 Oct 2026
FT · UCLLille OSC crestLille2Galatasaray SK crestGalatasaray4O1.576%✓58%✕24%✕19%✓51%✓76%✓29%✓53%✓
FT · La LigaLevante UD crestLevante3Athletic Club crestAthletic1U3.576%✕35%✓28%✕37%✕45%✓71%✓24%✓53%✓
FT · UCLReal Madrid CF crestReal Madrid4RB Leipzig crestLeipzig1O1.587%✓65%✓19%✕16%✕68%✓87%✓46%✓57%✓
FT · UCLFC Bayern München crestBayern2Arsenal FC crestArsenal2O1.580%✓39%✕25%✓36%✕57%✓80%✓34%✓56%✓
FT · UCLClub Brugge KV crestClub Brugge3Racing Club de Lens crestLens0O1.591%✓41%✓21%✕38%✕76%✓91%✓56%✕63%✕