ProbaPredict

Lille OSC crest Lille OSC vs Galatasaray SK Galatasaray SK crest prediction

Champions League · Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK

Full-time: Lille OSC 2–4 Galatasaray SK (Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Galatasaray SK a 19% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–4 a 0% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 5.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Lille OSC vs Galatasaray SK prediction (Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK): Lille OSC 58% · Draw 24% · Galatasaray SK 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.79–0.92. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lille vs Galatasaray pre-match preview

Lille host Galatasaray in the Champions League. Lille have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (DLWLW) and Galatasaray 3 points from 5 (LLLWL). Galatasaray: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 Champions League games.

Our model makes Lille clear favourites at 58%, with Galatasaray at 19%. Expected goals are 1.79 for Lille and 0.92 for Galatasaray, and the most likely score is 1-0 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 51%, below the Champions League rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Champions League match.

Lille to win is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Lille OSC vs Galatasaray SK?

Lille OSC are clear favourites at 58%, with Galatasaray SK at 19%. Recent form: Lille OSC DLWLWL, Galatasaray SK LLLWLW (latest first).

Galatasaray lost 5 of 6 away games last season.

Lille OSC58%
Draw24%
Galatasaray SK19%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 51% and Under 2.5 is 49%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Lille games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals76%24%1.32
2.5 goals51%49%1.97
3.5 goals29%71%3.48

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Lille OSC score in about 83% of simulated outcomes and Galatasaray SK in about 60%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Galatasaray games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes53%1.90
No47%2.11

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Lille OSC win58%1.74
Draw24%4.20
Galatasaray SK win19%5.37
Over 2.551%1.97
Under 2.549%2.03

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Lille OSC goals (rows) × Galatasaray SK goals (columns)
Lille \ Galatasaray012345
07%6%3%1%0%0%
112%11%5%2%0%0%
211%10%4%1%0%0%
36%6%3%1%0%0%
43%3%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-012%
1-111%
2-011%
2-110%
0-07%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lille and Galatasaray played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Lille, last 5
  1. D 1–1 v Brest
  2. L 0–3 at Arsenal
  3. W 1–0 v Le Havre
  4. L 1–2 at Nice
  5. W 2–0 v Troyes
Lille, last 5 at home
  1. D 1–1 v Brest
  2. W 1–0 v Le Havre
  3. W 2–0 v Troyes
  4. L 2–3 v Real Betis
  5. D 2–2 v PSG
Galatasaray, last 5
  1. L 1–4 v Barça
  2. L 1–3 at Sporting CP
  3. L 0–4 at Liverpool
  4. W 1–0 v Liverpool
  5. L 0–3 at Juventus
Galatasaray, last 5 away
  1. L 1–3 at Sporting CP
  2. L 0–4 at Liverpool
  3. L 0–3 at Juventus
  4. L 0–2 at Man City
  5. L 0–1 at Monaco

Current streaks

Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Lille and Galatasaray.

How Lille and Galatasaray compare this season

StatLille (home, 2)Galatasaray (away, 2)Champions League average
Over 1.5100% (2/2)100% (2/2)87%
Over 2.5100% (2/2)100% (2/2)74%
Over 3.5100% (2/2)100% (2/2)63%
BTTS100% (2/2)100% (2/2)67%
Win %0% (0/2)50% (1/2)59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game2.002.502.05
Goals against per game3.502.502.05

Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lille v Galatasaray?
Our model makes Lille the more likely winner at 58%: Lille 58%, draw 24%, Galatasaray 19%. Galatasaray lost 5 of 6 away games last season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lille v Galatasaray?
Over 2.5 goals is 51% and under 2.5 is 49%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in all 3 Lille games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-0 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lille and Galatasaray played recently?
Latest first: Lille DLWLW, Galatasaray LLLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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