Lille OSC vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction

Ligue 1 · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Lille OSC 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 23% chance, and the exact score 1–1 a 11% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (57%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (78%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (54%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (68%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (55%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Correct
Double chance: pick 1X (80%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Lille OSC vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Lille OSC 57% · Draw 23% · Stade Brestois 29 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.84–1.00. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lille vs Brest pre-match preview

Lille (4th, 14 pts) host Brest (10th, 9 pts) in the Ligue 1. Lille have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LWLWL) and Brest 7 points from 5 (WLLWD). Brest: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.

Our model makes Lille clear favourites at 57%, with Brest at 20%. Expected goals are 1.84 for Lille and 1.00 for Brest, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 54%, below the Ligue 1 rate of 63%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Ligue 1 match. In their last 4 meetings, Lille won 1, Brest won 1 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Lille to win is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Lille OSC vs Stade Brestois 29?

Lille OSC are clear favourites at 57%, with Stade Brestois 29 at 20%. Recent form: Lille OSC LWLWLW, Stade Brestois 29 WLLWDD (latest first).

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Lille OSC

57%

Draw

23%

Stade Brestois 29

20%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 54% and Under 2.5 is 46%.

Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Brest away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	78%	22%	1.28
2.5 goals	54%	46%	1.85
3.5 goals	32%	68%	3.15

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Lille OSC score in about 84% of simulated outcomes and Stade Brestois 29 in about 64%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 4 Brest away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.81
No	45%	2.24

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Lille OSC win	57%	1.77
Draw	23%	4.26
Stade Brestois 29 win	20%	5.00
Over 2.5	54%	1.85
Under 2.5	46%	2.18

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Lille OSC goals (rows) × Stade Brestois 29 goals (columns)
Lille \ Stade	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	10%	11%	5%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	3%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

1-0

10%

2-1

10%

2-0

10%

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lille and Brest played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Lille, last 5

Lille, last 5 at home

Brest, last 5

Brest, last 5 away

Current streaks

Brest: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Brest: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Lille and Brest.

How Lille and Brest compare this season

Stat	Lille (home, 4)	Brest (away, 4)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (4/4)	79%
Over 2.5	25% (1/4)	75% (3/4)	63%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	38%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	63%
Win %	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	1.50	1.50	1.52
Goals against per game	0.75	1.50	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Lille	4	14	7
Brest	10	9	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Lille 1 win, 2 draws, Brest 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 14 Feb 2026	Ligue 1	Lille v Brest	1–1
Sun, 17 Aug 2025	Ligue 1	Brest v Lille	3–3
Sat, 10 May 2025	Ligue 1	Brest v Lille	2–0
Fri, 6 Dec 2024	Ligue 1	Lille v Brest	3–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lille v Brest?: Our model makes Lille the more likely winner at 57%: Lille 57%, draw 23%, Brest 20%. Model expects 2.8 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lille v Brest?: Over 2.5 goals is 54% and under 2.5 is 46%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Brest away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lille and Brest played recently?: Latest first: Lille LWLWL, Brest WLLWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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