Toulouse FC vs ES Troyes AC prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK

Toulouse FC vs ES Troyes AC prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK): Toulouse FC 58% · Draw 23% · ES Troyes AC 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.87–0.96. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Toulouse vs Troyes preview

Toulouse (11th, 9 pts) host Troyes (17th, 4 pts) in the Ligue 1. Toulouse have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (WDWDL) and Troyes 0 points from 5 (LLLLL), so Toulouse arrive in clearly better form. Troyes: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Our model makes Toulouse clear favourites at 58%, with Troyes at 19%. Expected goals are 1.87 for Toulouse and 0.96 for Troyes, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 54%, below the Ligue 1 rate of 63%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Ligue 1 match.

Toulouse to win is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Toulouse FC vs ES Troyes AC?

Toulouse FC are clear favourites at 58%, with ES Troyes AC at 19%. Recent form: Toulouse FC WDWDLD, ES Troyes AC LLLLLW (latest first).

Troyes lost 2 of 3 away games this season.

Toulouse FC

58%

Draw

23%

ES Troyes AC

19%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 54% and Under 2.5 is 46%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 7 Toulouse games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	78%	22%	1.29
2.5 goals	54%	46%	1.86
3.5 goals	31%	69%	3.18

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Toulouse FC score in about 85% of simulated outcomes and ES Troyes AC in about 62%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.82
No	45%	2.22

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Toulouse FC win	58%	1.71
Draw	23%	4.33
ES Troyes AC win	19%	5.37
Over 2.5	54%	1.86
Under 2.5	46%	2.16

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Toulouse FC goals (rows) × ES Troyes AC goals (columns)
Toulouse \ ES	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	11%	11%	5%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	3%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

1-0

11%

2-0

10%

2-1

10%

3-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Toulouse and Troyes played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Toulouse, last 5

Toulouse, last 5 at home

Troyes, last 5

Troyes, last 5 away

Current streaks

Troyes: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Troyes have lost each of their last 5 league games.
Troyes have not won in their last 5 league games.
Toulouse: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Toulouse: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Toulouse are unbeaten in their last 4 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Toulouse and Troyes.

How Toulouse and Troyes compare this season

Stat	Toulouse (home, 3)	Troyes (away, 3)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	67% (2/3)	100% (3/3)	79%
Over 2.5	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	63%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	0% (0/3)	38%
BTTS	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	63%
Win %	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	1.00	0.67	1.52
Goals against per game	1.67	1.67	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Toulouse	11	9	7
Troyes	17	4	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Toulouse 2 wins, 0 draws, Troyes 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Wed, 1 Feb 2023	Ligue 1	Toulouse v Troyes	4–1
Sun, 14 Aug 2022	Ligue 1	Troyes v Toulouse	0–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Toulouse v Troyes?: Our model makes Toulouse the more likely winner at 58%: Toulouse 58%, draw 23%, Troyes 19%. Troyes lost 2 of 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Toulouse v Troyes?: Over 2.5 goals is 54% and under 2.5 is 46%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 5 of 7 Toulouse games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Toulouse and Troyes played recently?: Latest first: Toulouse WDWDL, Troyes LLLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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