ES Troyes AC vs Racing Club de Lens prediction

Ligue 1 · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: ES Troyes AC 1–3 Racing Club de Lens (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Racing Club de Lens a 52% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–3 a 5% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (52%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (77%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (52%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (70%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (55%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick X2 (76%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

ES Troyes AC vs Racing Club de Lens prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): ES Troyes AC 24% · Draw 25% · Racing Club de Lens 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.07–1.69. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Troyes vs Lens pre-match preview

Troyes (17th, 4 pts) host Lens (8th, 10 pts) in the Ligue 1. Troyes have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (LLLLW) and Lens 7 points from 5 (LWLDW). Troyes: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Our model favours Lens at 52% to Troyes's 24%. Expected goals are 1.07 for Troyes and 1.69 for Lens, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 52%, below the Ligue 1 rate of 63%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Ligue 1 match. In their last 4 meetings, Troyes didn't win any, Lens won 3 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win ES Troyes AC vs Racing Club de Lens?

Racing Club de Lens are favoured at 52%, but the draw and a ES Troyes AC win together still account for 48%. Recent form: ES Troyes AC LLLLWD, Racing Club de Lens LWLDWL (latest first).

Troyes lost 3 of 4 home games this season.

ES Troyes AC

24%

Draw

25%

Racing Club de Lens

52%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 52% and Under 2.5 is 48%.

Over 2.5 in all 4 Lens away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	77%	23%	1.31
2.5 goals	52%	48%	1.92
3.5 goals	30%	70%	3.35

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: ES Troyes AC score in about 66% of simulated outcomes and Racing Club de Lens in about 82%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 4 Lens away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.80
No	45%	2.24

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
ES Troyes AC win	24%	4.25
Draw	25%	4.01
Racing Club de Lens win	52%	1.94
Over 2.5	52%	1.92
Under 2.5	48%	2.09

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: ES Troyes AC goals (rows) × Racing Club de Lens goals (columns)
ES \ Racing	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	10%	9%	5%	2%	1%
1	6%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%
2	4%	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

0-1

10%

1-2

10%

0-2

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Troyes and Lens played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Troyes, last 5

Troyes, last 5 at home

Lens, last 5

Lens, last 5 away

Current streaks

Troyes: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Troyes have lost each of their last 5 league games.
Troyes have not won in their last 5 league games.
Lens: both teams scored in each of their last 4 league games.
Lens: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lens: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Troyes and Lens.

How Troyes and Lens compare this season

Stat	Troyes (home, 4)	Lens (away, 4)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (4/4)	79%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	63%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	38%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	63%
Win %	0% (0/4)	25% (1/4)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	0.75	1.75	1.52
Goals against per game	2.75	1.75	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Troyes	17	4	7
Lens	8	10	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Troyes 0 wins, 1 draw, Lens 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 28 Jan 2023	Ligue 1	Troyes v Lens	1–1
Fri, 9 Sept 2022	Ligue 1	Lens v Troyes	1–0
Sat, 14 May 2022	Ligue 1	Troyes v Lens	1–3
Fri, 5 Nov 2021	Ligue 1	Lens v Troyes	4–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Troyes v Lens?: Our model makes Lens the more likely winner at 52%: Troyes 24%, draw 25%, Lens 52%. Troyes lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Troyes v Lens?: Over 2.5 goals is 52% and under 2.5 is 48%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in all 4 Lens away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Troyes and Lens played recently?: Latest first: Troyes LLLLW, Lens LWLDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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