Olympique de Marseille vs Le Havre AC prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK

Olympique de Marseille vs Le Havre AC prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK): Olympique de Marseille 66% · Draw 20% · Le Havre AC 14%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 2.08–0.84. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Marseille vs Le Havre preview

Marseille (9th, 9 pts) host Le Havre (18th, 2 pts) in the Ligue 1. Marseille have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (WWLLL) and Le Havre 1 point from 5 (LLLDL). Le Havre have not won in their last 7 league games.

Our model makes Marseille clear favourites at 66%, with Le Havre at 14%. Expected goals are 2.08 for Marseille and 0.84 for Le Havre, and the most likely score is 2-0 (12%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 54%, against 63% across the Ligue 1. In their last 5 meetings, Marseille won all 5; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Marseille to win is the model's clearest call at 66%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win Olympique de Marseille vs Le Havre AC?

Olympique de Marseille are clear favourites at 66%, with Le Havre AC at 14%. Recent form: Olympique de Marseille WWLLLL, Le Havre AC LLLDLD (latest first).

Le Havre lost 2 of 3 away games this season.

Olympique de Marseille

66%

Draw

20%

Le Havre AC

14%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Marseille home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	79%	21%	1.26
2.5 goals	56%	44%	1.79
3.5 goals	34%	66%	2.98

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Olympique de Marseille score in about 88% of simulated outcomes and Le Havre AC in about 58%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 2 of 3 Marseille home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.85
No	46%	2.17

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Olympique de Marseille win	66%	1.52
Draw	20%	4.88
Le Havre AC win	14%	7.25
Over 2.5	56%	1.79
Under 2.5	44%	2.27

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Olympique de Marseille goals (rows) × Le Havre AC goals (columns)
Olympique \ Le	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
1	11%	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	8%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	4%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-0

12%

1-0

11%

2-1

10%

1-1

10%

3-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Marseille and Le Havre played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Marseille, last 5

Marseille, last 5 at home

Le Havre, last 5

Le Havre, last 5 away

Current streaks

Le Havre have not won in their last 7 league games.
Marseille: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Le Havre have lost each of their last 3 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Marseille and Le Havre.

How Marseille and Le Havre compare this season

Stat	Marseille (home, 3)	Le Havre (away, 3)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	79%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	63%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	38%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	63%
Win %	33% (1/3)	0% (0/3)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	2.33	1.00	1.52
Goals against per game	1.67	1.67	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Marseille	9	9	7
Le Havre	18	2	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Marseille 5 wins, 0 draws, Le Havre 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 10 May 2026	Ligue 1	Le Havre v Marseille	0–1
Sat, 18 Oct 2025	Ligue 1	Marseille v Le Havre	6–2
Sat, 10 May 2025	Ligue 1	Le Havre v Marseille	1–3
Sun, 5 Jan 2025	Ligue 1	Marseille v Le Havre	5–1
Sun, 19 May 2024	Ligue 1	Le Havre v Marseille	1–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Marseille v Le Havre?: Our model makes Marseille the more likely winner at 66%: Marseille 66%, draw 20%, Le Havre 14%. Le Havre lost 2 of 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Marseille v Le Havre?: Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in all 3 Marseille home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-0 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Marseille and Le Havre played recently?: Latest first: Marseille WWLLL, Le Havre LLLDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

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