Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK

Full-time: Le Havre AC 1–3 AJ Auxerre (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK). Before kick-off the model gave AJ Auxerre a 34% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–3 a 3% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (37%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (53%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (14%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (71%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (68%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (59%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (80%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK): Le Havre AC 37% · Draw 29% · AJ Auxerre 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.19–1.13. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Le Havre vs Auxerre pre-match preview

Le Havre (18th, 2 pts) host Auxerre (12th, 9 pts) in the Ligue 1. Le Havre have taken 2 points from their last 5 games (LLDLD) and Auxerre 6 points from 5 (LWWLL). Le Havre have not won in their last 7 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Le Havre 37%, Auxerre 34%. A draw is more likely than usual at 29%; 24% of Ligue 1 matches end level. Expected goals are 1.19 for Le Havre and 1.13 for Auxerre, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 59%, while 63% of Ligue 1 matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Le Havre won 3, Auxerre didn't win any and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre?

This is close to a coin flip: Le Havre AC 37%, AJ Auxerre 34%, with the draw at 29%. Recent form: Le Havre AC LLDLDL, AJ Auxerre LWWLLL (latest first).

Auxerre lost 3 of 4 away games this season.

Le Havre AC

37%

Draw

29%

AJ Auxerre

34%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 59%; Over 2.5 is 41%.

Under 2.5 in 23 of 34 Le Havre games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	68%	32%	1.48
2.5 goals	41%	59%	2.45
3.5 goals	20%	80%	4.90

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Le Havre AC score in about 70% of simulated outcomes and AJ Auxerre in about 68%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 4 Auxerre away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	53%	1.89
No	47%	2.12

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Le Havre AC win	37%	2.70
Draw	29%	3.43
AJ Auxerre win	34%	2.96
Over 2.5	41%	2.45
Under 2.5	59%	1.69

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Le Havre AC goals (rows) × AJ Auxerre goals (columns)
Le \ AJ	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	11%	6%	2%	1%	0%
1	11%	14%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	0%	0%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

14%

1-0

11%

0-1

11%

0-0

10%

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Le Havre and Auxerre played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Le Havre, last 5

Le Havre, last 5 at home

Auxerre, last 5

Auxerre, last 5 away

Current streaks

Le Havre have not won in their last 7 league games.
Auxerre: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Auxerre: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Auxerre: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Le Havre have lost each of their last 3 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Le Havre and Auxerre.

How Le Havre and Auxerre compare this season

Stat	Le Havre (home, 4)	Auxerre (away, 4)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	79%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	63%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	100% (4/4)	38%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	63%
Win %	0% (0/4)	25% (1/4)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	0.50	1.75	1.52
Goals against per game	1.50	3.25	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Le Havre	18	2	7
Auxerre	12	9	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Le Havre 3 wins, 1 draw, Auxerre 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 5 Apr 2026	Ligue 1	Le Havre v Auxerre	1–1
Sun, 26 Oct 2025	Ligue 1	Auxerre v Le Havre	0–1
Sun, 4 May 2025	Ligue 1	Auxerre v Le Havre	1–2
Sun, 1 Sept 2024	Ligue 1	Le Havre v Auxerre	3–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Le Havre v Auxerre?: Our model makes Le Havre the more likely winner at 37%: Le Havre 37%, draw 29%, Auxerre 34%. Auxerre lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Le Havre v Auxerre?: Over 2.5 goals is 41% and under 2.5 is 59%, with expected goals of 2.3. Under 2.5 in 23 of 34 Le Havre games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Le Havre and Auxerre played recently?: Latest first: Le Havre LLDLD, Auxerre LWWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

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