Racing Club de Lens vs Paris FC prediction

Ligue 1 · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Racing Club de Lens vs Paris FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Racing Club de Lens 54% · Draw 24% · Paris FC 21%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.74–1.00. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lens vs Paris preview

Lens (8th, 10 pts) host Paris (3rd, 14 pts) in the Ligue 1. Lens have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LWLWL) and Paris 10 points from 5 (WLWDW). Lens: both teams scored in each of their last 4 league games.

Our model makes Lens clear favourites at 54%, with Paris at 21%. Expected goals are 1.74 for Lens and 1.00 for Paris, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 51%, below the Ligue 1 rate of 63%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Ligue 1 match.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Racing Club de Lens vs Paris FC?

Racing Club de Lens are clear favourites at 54%, with Paris FC at 21%. Recent form: Racing Club de Lens LWLWLD, Paris FC WLWDWW (latest first).

Lens won 2 of 3 home games this season.

Racing Club de Lens

54%

Draw

24%

Paris FC

21%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 51% and Under 2.5 is 49%.

Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 Lens games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	76%	24%	1.31
2.5 goals	51%	49%	1.95
3.5 goals	29%	71%	3.42

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Racing Club de Lens score in about 82% of simulated outcomes and Paris FC in about 63%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 6 of 7 Lens games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.82
No	45%	2.21

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Racing Club de Lens win	54%	1.84
Draw	24%	4.09
Paris FC win	21%	4.72
Over 2.5	51%	1.95
Under 2.5	49%	2.06

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Racing Club de Lens goals (rows) × Paris FC goals (columns)
Racing \ Paris	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	11%	12%	6%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-0

11%

2-0

10%

2-1

10%

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lens and Paris played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Lens: both teams scored in each of their last 4 league games.
Lens: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lens: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Lens and Paris.

How Lens and Paris compare this season

Stat	Lens (home, 3)	Paris (away, 3)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	79%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	63%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	38%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	63%
Win %	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	2.33	1.00	1.52
Goals against per game	1.33	1.00	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Lens	8	10	7
Paris	3	14	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Lens 2 wins, 0 draws, Paris 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 14 Feb 2026	Ligue 1	Paris v Lens	0–5
Sun, 19 Oct 2025	Ligue 1	Lens v Paris	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lens v Paris?: Our model makes Lens the more likely winner at 54%: Lens 54%, draw 24%, Paris 21%. Lens won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lens v Paris?: Over 2.5 goals is 51% and under 2.5 is 49%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 Lens games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lens and Paris played recently?: Latest first: Lens LWLWL, Paris WLWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

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