Paris FC vs Stade Rennais FC 1901 prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK

Full-time: Paris FC 4–3 Stade Rennais FC 1901 (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Paris FC a 41% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–3 a 1% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (41%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (79%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (56%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (67%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (57%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (75%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Paris FC vs Stade Rennais FC 1901 prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK): Paris FC 41% · Draw 25% · Stade Rennais FC 1901 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.54–1.38. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Paris vs Stade Rennais pre-match preview

Paris (3rd, 14 pts) host Stade Rennais (6th, 13 pts) in the Ligue 1. Paris have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (LWDWW) and Stade Rennais 12 points from 5 (WLWWW). Stade Rennais: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Paris 41%, Stade Rennais 34%. Expected goals are 1.54 for Paris and 1.38 for Stade Rennais, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Ligue 1 norm: Over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 57%.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Paris FC vs Stade Rennais FC 1901?

This is close to a coin flip: Paris FC 41%, Stade Rennais FC 1901 34%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: Paris FC LWDWWD, Stade Rennais FC 1901 WLWWWD (latest first).

Paris won 3 of 4 home games this season.

Paris FC

41%

Draw

25%

Stade Rennais FC 1901

34%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Stade Rennais away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	79%	21%	1.26
2.5 goals	56%	44%	1.79
3.5 goals	33%	67%	2.99

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: Paris FC score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and Stade Rennais FC 1901 in about 75%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 7 Stade Rennais games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	57%	1.74
No	43%	2.35

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Paris FC win	41%	2.46
Draw	25%	3.93
Stade Rennais FC 1901 win	34%	2.95
Over 2.5	56%	1.79
Under 2.5	44%	2.26

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Paris FC goals (rows) × Stade Rennais FC 1901 goals (columns)
Paris \ Stade	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	8%	12%	8%	4%	1%	0%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	3%	5%	3%	1%	1%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

2-1

1-2

1-0

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Paris and Stade Rennais played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Paris, last 5

Paris, last 5 at home

Stade Rennais, last 5

Stade Rennais, last 5 away

Current streaks

Stade Rennais: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Stade Rennais: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Paris and Stade Rennais.

How Paris and Stade Rennais compare this season

Stat	Paris (home, 4)	Stade Rennais (away, 3)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (3/3)	79%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	100% (3/3)	63%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	67% (2/3)	38%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	67% (2/3)	63%
Win %	75% (3/4)	33% (1/3)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	2.25	1.67	1.52
Goals against per game	1.00	3.00	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Paris	3	14	7
Stade Rennais	6	13	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Paris 0 wins, 0 draws, Stade Rennais 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 10 May 2026	Ligue 1	Stade Rennais v Paris	2–1
Fri, 7 Nov 2025	Ligue 1	Paris v Stade Rennais	0–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Paris v Stade Rennais?: Our model makes Paris the more likely winner at 41%: Paris 41%, draw 25%, Stade Rennais 34%. Paris won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris v Stade Rennais?: Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in all 3 Stade Rennais away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Paris and Stade Rennais played recently?: Latest first: Paris LWDWW, Stade Rennais WLWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
19:45 · Ligue 1Ligue 1LensvParis	O1.576%	54%	24%	21%	76%	51%	29%	55%	51%	76%	29%	55%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Ligue 1Ligue 1MonacovLille	O1.577%	44%	26%	30%	77%	53%	30%	56%	53%	77%	30%	56%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1MarseillevLe Havre	O1.579%	66%	20%	14%	79%	56%	34%	54%	56%	79%	34%	54%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1AuxerrevLe Mans	O1.575%	45%	27%	29%	75%	49%	28%	55%	49%	75%	28%	55%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1ToulousevTroyes	O1.578%	58%	23%	19%	78%	54%	31%	55%	54%	78%	31%	55%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1Stade RennaisvStrasbourg	O1.587%	48%	22%	29%	87%	68%	47%	61%	68%	87%	47%	61%

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