AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans FC prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK

AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans FC prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK): AJ Auxerre 45% · Draw 27% · Le Mans FC 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.50–1.15. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Auxerre vs Le Mans preview

Auxerre (12th, 9 pts) host Le Mans (16th, 6 pts) in the Ligue 1. Auxerre have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (WLWWL) and Le Mans 5 points from 5 (LLWDD). Le Mans: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Auxerre at 45% to Le Mans's 29%. Expected goals are 1.50 for Auxerre and 1.15 for Le Mans, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 51%, while 63% of Ligue 1 matches go over 2.5.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans FC?

AJ Auxerre are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a Le Mans FC win together still account for 55%. Recent form: AJ Auxerre WLWWLL, Le Mans FC LLWDDL (latest first).

Auxerre won 2 of 3 home games this season.

AJ Auxerre

45%

Draw

27%

Le Mans FC

29%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	75%	25%	1.34
2.5 goals	49%	51%	2.02
3.5 goals	28%	72%	3.64

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: AJ Auxerre score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and Le Mans FC in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Le Mans away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.81
No	45%	2.24

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AJ Auxerre win	45%	2.24
Draw	27%	3.77
Le Mans FC win	29%	3.46
Over 2.5	49%	2.02
Under 2.5	51%	1.98

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AJ Auxerre goals (rows) × Le Mans FC goals (columns)
AJ \ Le	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

2-1

2-0

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Auxerre and Le Mans played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Auxerre, last 5

Auxerre, last 5 at home

Le Mans, last 5

Le Mans, last 5 away

Current streaks

Le Mans: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Le Mans: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Auxerre: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Auxerre: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Auxerre: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Auxerre and Le Mans.

How Auxerre and Le Mans compare this season

Stat	Auxerre (home, 3)	Le Mans (away, 3)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	67% (2/3)	100% (3/3)	79%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	63%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	67% (2/3)	38%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	100% (3/3)	63%
Win %	67% (2/3)	0% (0/3)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	1.33	1.33	1.52
Goals against per game	1.33	2.33	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Auxerre	12	9	7
Le Mans	16	6	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Auxerre v Le Mans?: Our model makes Auxerre the more likely winner at 45%: Auxerre 45%, draw 27%, Le Mans 29%. Auxerre won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Auxerre v Le Mans?: Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.7. Model expects 2.7 total goals.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Auxerre and Le Mans played recently?: Latest first: Auxerre WLWWL, Le Mans LLWDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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