Angers SCO vs Olympique de Marseille prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Full-time: Angers SCO 2–5 Olympique de Marseille (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Olympique de Marseille a 53% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–5 a 0% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (53%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (75%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (50%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (72%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (54%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick X2 (78%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Angers SCO vs Olympique de Marseille prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Angers SCO 22% · Draw 25% · Olympique de Marseille 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 0.99–1.67. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Angers SCO vs Marseille pre-match preview

Angers SCO (15th, 7 pts) host Marseille (9th, 9 pts) in the Ligue 1. Angers SCO have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (LWDLW) and Marseille 3 points from 5 (WLLLL). Marseille: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Our model makes Marseille clear favourites at 53%, with Angers SCO at 22%. Expected goals are 0.99 for Angers SCO and 1.67 for Marseille, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 50%, while 63% of Ligue 1 matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Angers SCO didn't win any, Marseille won 2 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Angers SCO vs Olympique de Marseille?

Olympique de Marseille are clear favourites at 53%, with Angers SCO at 22%. Recent form: Angers SCO LWDLWL, Olympique de Marseille WLLLLW (latest first).

Angers SCO lost 3 of 4 home games this season.

Angers SCO

22%

Draw

25%

Olympique de Marseille

53%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Marseille away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	75%	25%	1.34
2.5 goals	50%	50%	2.01
3.5 goals	28%	72%	3.61

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Angers SCO score in about 63% of simulated outcomes and Olympique de Marseille in about 81%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of the last 4 meetings.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.83
No	46%	2.20

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Angers SCO win	22%	4.53
Draw	25%	3.98
Olympique de Marseille win	53%	1.90
Over 2.5	50%	2.01
Under 2.5	50%	1.99

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Angers SCO goals (rows) × Olympique de Marseille goals (columns)
Angers \ Olympique	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	11%	10%	5%	2%	1%
1	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

0-1

11%

0-2

10%

1-2

10%

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Angers SCO and Marseille played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Angers SCO, last 5

Angers SCO, last 5 at home

Marseille, last 5

Marseille, last 5 away

Current streaks

Marseille: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Angers SCO: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Angers SCO and Marseille.

How Angers SCO and Marseille compare this season

Stat	Angers SCO (home, 4)	Marseille (away, 4)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	75% (3/4)	79%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	63%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	38%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	63%
Win %	25% (1/4)	50% (2/4)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	1.25	1.75	1.52
Goals against per game	2.25	1.25	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Angers SCO	15	7	7
Marseille	9	9	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Angers SCO 0 wins, 2 draws, Marseille 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 17 Jan 2026	Ligue 1	Angers SCO v Marseille	2–5
Wed, 29 Oct 2025	Ligue 1	Marseille v Angers SCO	2–2
Sun, 9 Feb 2025	Ligue 1	Angers SCO v Marseille	0–2
Fri, 4 Oct 2024	Ligue 1	Marseille v Angers SCO	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Angers SCO v Marseille?: Our model makes Marseille the more likely winner at 53%: Angers SCO 22%, draw 25%, Marseille 53%. Angers SCO lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Angers SCO v Marseille?: Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Marseille away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Angers SCO and Marseille played recently?: Latest first: Angers SCO LWDLW, Marseille WLLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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