ProbaPredict

FC Bayern München crest FC Bayern München vs Arsenal FC Arsenal FC crest prediction

Champions League · Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: FC Bayern München 2–2 Arsenal FC (Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 25% chance, and the exact score 2–2 a 6% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

FC Bayern München vs Arsenal FC prediction (Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): FC Bayern München 39% · Draw 25% · Arsenal FC 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.52–1.44. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bayern vs Arsenal pre-match preview

Bayern host Arsenal in the Champions League. Bayern have taken 11 points from their last 5 games (WDDWW) and Arsenal 12 points from 5 (WWWLW). Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 18 Champions League games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Bayern 39%, Arsenal 36%. Expected goals are 1.52 for Bayern and 1.44 for Arsenal, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 57%, below the Champions League rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Champions League match.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win FC Bayern München vs Arsenal FC?

This is close to a coin flip: FC Bayern München 39%, Arsenal FC 36%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: FC Bayern München WDDWWW, Arsenal FC WWWLWW (latest first).

Bayern are unbeaten in their last 4 Champions League games.

FC Bayern München39%
Draw25%
Arsenal FC36%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 57% and Under 2.5 is 43%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Bayern games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals80%20%1.25
2.5 goals57%43%1.76
3.5 goals34%66%2.92

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: FC Bayern München score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and Arsenal FC in about 76%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 2 of 3 Bayern games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes56%1.77
No44%2.30

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Bayern München win39%2.56
Draw25%3.96
Arsenal FC win36%2.81
Over 2.557%1.76
Under 2.543%2.31

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:XWhatsAppTelegramFacebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Bayern München goals (rows) × Arsenal FC goals (columns)
FC \ Arsenal012345
06%7%5%3%1%0%
18%12%8%4%1%0%
26%9%6%3%1%0%
33%4%3%2%1%0%
41%2%1%1%0%0%
50%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-112%
2-19%
1-28%
1-08%
0-17%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bayern and Arsenal played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bayern, last 5
  1. W 6–1 v Leipzig
  2. D 3–3 at Viking
  3. D 2–2 at Augsburg
  4. W 7–0 v Union Berlin
  5. W 2–1 at Elversberg
Bayern, last 5 at home
  1. W 6–1 v Leipzig
  2. W 7–0 v Union Berlin
  3. W 5–0 v Bodø/Glimt
  4. W 5–1 v Stuttgart
  5. W 5–1 v Köln
Arsenal, last 5
  1. W 1–0 at Nottingham
  2. W 3–0 v Lille
  3. W 2–1 v Leeds
  4. L 0–3 at Brighton
  5. W 2–0 at Sunderland
Arsenal, last 5 away
  1. W 1–0 at Nottingham
  2. L 0–3 at Brighton
  3. W 2–0 at Sunderland
  4. W 1–0 at Napoli
  5. W 1–0 at Aston Villa

Current streaks

Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Bayern and Arsenal.

How Bayern and Arsenal compare this season

StatBayern (home, 2)Arsenal (away, 2)Champions League average
Over 1.5100% (2/2)50% (1/2)87%
Over 2.5100% (2/2)50% (1/2)74%
Over 3.5100% (2/2)50% (1/2)63%
BTTS50% (1/2)50% (1/2)67%
Win %50% (1/2)50% (1/2)59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game3.501.502.05
Goals against per game1.001.002.05

Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Head-to-head

Last 1 meeting: Bayern 0 wins, 0 draws, Arsenal 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 1; both teams scored in 1 of 1.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Wed, 26 Nov 2025Champions LeagueArsenal v Bayern3–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bayern v Arsenal?
Our model makes Bayern the more likely winner at 39%: Bayern 39%, draw 25%, Arsenal 36%. Bayern are unbeaten in their last 4 Champions League games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayern v Arsenal?
Over 2.5 goals is 57% and under 2.5 is 43%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in all 3 Bayern games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bayern and Arsenal played recently?
Latest first: Bayern WDDWW, Arsenal WWWLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Wed, 21 Oct 2026
FT · UCLLille OSC crestLille2Galatasaray SK crestGalatasaray4O1.576%✓58%✕24%✕19%✓51%✓76%✓29%✓53%✓
FT · UCLComo 1907 crestComo 19074Manchester United FC crestMan United1O1.577%✓41%✓26%✕33%✕52%✓77%✓30%✓55%✓
FT · La LigaLevante UD crestLevante3Athletic Club crestAthletic1U3.576%✕35%✓28%✕37%✕45%✓71%✓24%✓53%✓
FT · UCLReal Madrid CF crestReal Madrid4RB Leipzig crestLeipzig1O1.587%✓65%✓19%✕16%✕68%✓87%✓46%✓57%✓
FT · UCLClub Brugge KV crestClub Brugge3Racing Club de Lens crestLens0O1.591%✓41%✓21%✕38%✕76%✓91%✓56%✕63%✕