Serie A · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK
Full-time: ACF Fiorentina 1–3 Como 1907 (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Como 1907 a 47% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–3 a 5% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.
4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick away (47%)Correct
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (75%)Correct
- Over/Under 2.5: pick under (50%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (72%)Incorrect
- Both teams to score: pick yes (52%)Correct
- Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick 12 (74%)Correct
Published before kick-off, unchanged
ACF Fiorentina vs Como 1907 prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): ACF Fiorentina 26% · Draw 26% · Como 1907 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.10–1.56. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Fiorentina vs Como 1907 pre-match preview
Fiorentina (18th, 4 pts) host Como 1907 (5th, 14 pts) in the Serie A. Fiorentina have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LDWLL) and Como 1907 7 points from 5 (LDLWW). Fiorentina: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
Our model favours Como 1907 at 47% to Fiorentina's 26%. Expected goals are 1.10 for Fiorentina and 1.56 for Como 1907, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 50%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Fiorentina won 2 and Como 1907 won 2; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win ACF Fiorentina vs Como 1907?
Como 1907 are favoured at 47%, but the draw and a ACF Fiorentina win together still account for 53%. Recent form: ACF Fiorentina LDWLLL, Como 1907 LDLWWW (latest first).
Fiorentina lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.
Model expects 2.7 total goals.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 75% | 25% | 1.34 |
| 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 2.01 |
| 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | 3.60 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: ACF Fiorentina score in about 67% of simulated outcomes and Como 1907 in about 79%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 4 of 5 Como 1907 away games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 26% | 3.78 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 |
| Como 1907 win | 47% | 2.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.7 total goals.
| ACF \ Como | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Fiorentina and Como 1907 played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Fiorentina: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
- Fiorentina: both teams scored in each of their last 5 league games.
- Fiorentina have not won in their last 3 league games.
Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Fiorentina and Como 1907.
How Fiorentina and Como 1907 compare this season
| Stat | Fiorentina (home, 4) | Como 1907 (away, 5) | Serie A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (4/4) | 100% (5/5) | 84% |
| Over 2.5 | 75% (3/4) | 60% (3/5) | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% (1/4) | 40% (2/5) | 30% |
| BTTS | 75% (3/4) | 80% (4/5) | 57% |
| Win % | 0% (0/4) | 60% (3/5) | 47% home · 36% away |
| Goals for per game | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.48 |
| Goals against per game | 2.25 | 1.20 | 1.48 |
Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Serie A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 18 | 4 | 7 |
| Como 1907 | 5 | 14 | 7 |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Fiorentina 2 wins, 0 draws, Como 1907 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 14 Feb 2026 | Serie A | Como 1907 v Fiorentina | 1–2 |
| Sun, 21 Sept 2025 | Serie A | Fiorentina v Como 1907 | 1–2 |
| Sun, 16 Feb 2025 | Serie A | Fiorentina v Como 1907 | 0–2 |
| Sun, 24 Nov 2024 | Serie A | Como 1907 v Fiorentina | 0–2 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Fiorentina v Como 1907?
- Our model makes Como 1907 the more likely winner at 47%: Fiorentina 26%, draw 26%, Como 1907 47%. Fiorentina lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fiorentina v Como 1907?
- Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Model expects 2.7 total goals.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Fiorentina and Como 1907 played recently?
- Latest first: Fiorentina LDWLL, Como 1907 LDLWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- ACF Fiorentina
- Como 1907
- Serie A predictions
- Serie A table
- Serie A Home win
- Serie A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Serie A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14:00 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.579% | 32% | 29% | 39% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 50% |
14:00 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.582% | 61% | 21% | 18% | 60% | 82% | 38% | 53% |
17:00 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.579% | 36% | 29% | 35% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 50% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.581% | 58% | 26% | 16% | 39% | 66% | 19% | 47% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
11:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.586% | 72% | 16% | 11% | 68% | 86% | 46% | 53% |
14:00 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.579% | 56% | 23% | 20% | 56% | 79% | 34% | 53% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574%✕ | 45%✓ | 27%✕ | 29%✕ | 48%✕ | 74%✕ | 26%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585%✓ | 28%✓ | 23%✕ | 49%✕ | 65%✓ | 85%✓ | 43%✓ | 61%✓ |
FT · Serie ASerie A  | U3.580%✓ | 53%✕ | 27%✕ | 20%✓ | 41%✓ | 68%✓ | 20%✕ | 48%✕ |
FT · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.587%✓ | 48%✓ | 22%✕ | 30%✕ | 68%✕ | 87%✓ | 46%✕ | 60%✕ |
FT · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.586%✓ | 22%✕ | 21%✓ | 56%✕ | 66%✓ | 86%✓ | 44%✓ | 60%✓ |