SS Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 prediction

Serie A · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

SS Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): SS Lazio 58% · Draw 26% · Parma Calcio 1913 16%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.57–0.69. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 47%, No 53%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (16%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lazio vs Parma preview

Lazio (2nd, 19 pts) host Parma (19th, 4 pts) in the Serie A. Lazio have taken 13 points from their last 5 games (WWWDW) and Parma 4 points from 5 (LLWLD), so Lazio arrive in clearly better form. Lazio are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

Our model makes Lazio clear favourites at 58%, with Parma at 16%. Expected goals are 1.57 for Lazio and 0.69 for Parma, and the most likely score is 1-0 (16%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 61%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Lazio won 1, Parma won 1 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win SS Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913?

SS Lazio are clear favourites at 58%, with Parma Calcio 1913 at 16%. Recent form: SS Lazio WWWDWW, Parma Calcio 1913 LLWLDL (latest first).

Parma lost all 3 away games this season.

SS Lazio

58%

Draw

26%

Parma Calcio 1913

16%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 61%; Over 2.5 is 39%.

Under 2.5 in 14 of 19 Parma away games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	66%	34%	1.51
2.5 goals	39%	61%	2.54
3.5 goals	19%	81%	5.18

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance: SS Lazio score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and Parma Calcio 1913 in about 50%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	47%	2.14
No	53%	1.88

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
SS Lazio win	58%	1.72
Draw	26%	3.85
Parma Calcio 1913 win	16%	6.30
Over 2.5	39%	2.54
Under 2.5	61%	1.65

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SS Lazio goals (rows) × Parma Calcio 1913 goals (columns)
SS \ Parma	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11%	7%	2%	1%	0%	0%
1	16%	12%	4%	1%	0%	0%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%
3	7%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%
4	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

16%

2-0

13%

1-1

12%

0-0

11%

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lazio and Parma played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Lazio, last 5

Lazio, last 5 at home

Parma, last 5

Parma, last 5 away

Current streaks

Lazio are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Parma: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Lazio: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Parma: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lazio have won each of their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Lazio and Parma.

How Lazio and Parma compare this season

Stat	Lazio (home, 3)	Parma (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	67% (2/3)	100% (3/3)	84%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	60%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	0% (0/3)	30%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	57%
Win %	67% (2/3)	0% (0/3)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	2.00	0.33	1.48
Goals against per game	1.00	2.33	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Lazio	2	19	7
Parma	19	4	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Lazio 1 win, 2 draws, Parma 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 4 Apr 2026	Serie A	Lazio v Parma	1–1
Sat, 13 Dec 2025	Serie A	Parma v Lazio	0–1
Mon, 28 Apr 2025	Serie A	Lazio v Parma	2–2
Sun, 1 Dec 2024	Serie A	Parma v Lazio	3–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lazio v Parma?: Our model makes Lazio the more likely winner at 58%: Lazio 58%, draw 26%, Parma 16%. Parma lost all 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lazio v Parma?: Over 2.5 goals is 39% and under 2.5 is 61%, with expected goals of 2.3. Under 2.5 in 14 of 19 Parma away games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 16%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lazio and Parma played recently?: Latest first: Lazio WWWDW, Parma LLWLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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