SSC Napoli vs AS Roma prediction

Serie A · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UK

SSC Napoli vs AS Roma prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UK): SSC Napoli 36% · Draw 29% · AS Roma 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.18–1.17. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Napoli vs Roma preview

Napoli (9th, 10 pts) host Roma (3rd, 17 pts) in the Serie A. Napoli have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WLLWD) and Roma 8 points from 5 (WWLDD). Roma are unbeaten in their last 14 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Napoli 36%, Roma 35%. Expected goals are 1.18 for Napoli and 1.17 for Roma, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 58%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Napoli won 2, Roma didn't win any and 3 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win SSC Napoli vs AS Roma?

This is close to a coin flip: SSC Napoli 36%, AS Roma 35%, with the draw at 29%. Recent form: SSC Napoli WLLWDW, AS Roma WWLDDW (latest first).

Napoli won 2 of 3 home games this season.

SSC Napoli

36%

Draw

29%

AS Roma

35%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 58%; Over 2.5 is 42%.

Under 2.5 in 2 of 3 Roma away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	69%	31%	1.46
2.5 goals	42%	58%	2.39
3.5 goals	21%	79%	4.71

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance: SSC Napoli score in about 69% of simulated outcomes and AS Roma in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	50%	2.00
No	50%	2.00

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
SSC Napoli win	36%	2.79
Draw	29%	3.46
AS Roma win	35%	2.83
Over 2.5	42%	2.39
Under 2.5	58%	1.72

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SSC Napoli goals (rows) × AS Roma goals (columns)
SSC \ AS	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	11%	7%	3%	1%	0%
1	11%	14%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

14%

1-0

11%

0-1

11%

0-0

10%

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Napoli and Roma played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Roma are unbeaten in their last 14 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Napoli and Roma.

How Napoli and Roma compare this season

Stat	Napoli (home, 3)	Roma (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	84%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	60%
Over 3.5	0% (0/3)	33% (1/3)	30%
BTTS	33% (1/3)	0% (0/3)	57%
Win %	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	1.67	2.00	1.48
Goals against per game	0.67	0.00	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Napoli	9	10	7
Roma	3	17	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Napoli 2 wins, 3 draws, Roma 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 15 Feb 2026	Serie A	Napoli v Roma	2–2
Sun, 30 Nov 2025	Serie A	Roma v Napoli	0–1
Sun, 2 Feb 2025	Serie A	Roma v Napoli	1–1
Sun, 24 Nov 2024	Serie A	Napoli v Roma	1–0
Sun, 28 Apr 2024	Serie A	Napoli v Roma	2–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Napoli v Roma?: Our model makes Napoli the more likely winner at 36%: Napoli 36%, draw 29%, Roma 35%. Napoli won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Napoli v Roma?: Over 2.5 goals is 42% and under 2.5 is 58%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 2 of 3 Roma away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Napoli and Roma played recently?: Latest first: Napoli WLLWD, Roma WWLDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%

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