SSC Napoli vs FK Bodø/Glimt prediction

Champions League · Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: SSC Napoli 4–3 FK Bodø/Glimt (Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave SSC Napoli a 46% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–3 a 0% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (46%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (54%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (74%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (75%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (51%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (72%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

SSC Napoli vs FK Bodø/Glimt prediction (Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): SSC Napoli 46% · Draw 26% · FK Bodø/Glimt 28%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.55–1.15. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt pre-match preview

Napoli host Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League. Napoli have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (LLWDW) and Bodø/Glimt 9 points from 5 (WLLWW).

Our model favours Napoli at 46% to Bodø/Glimt's 28%. Expected goals are 1.55 for Napoli and 1.15 for Bodø/Glimt, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 51%, below the Champions League rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Champions League match.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win SSC Napoli vs FK Bodø/Glimt?

SSC Napoli are favoured at 46%, but the draw and a FK Bodø/Glimt win together still account for 54%. Recent form: SSC Napoli LLWDWL, FK Bodø/Glimt WLLWWW (latest first).

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

SSC Napoli

46%

Draw

26%

FK Bodø/Glimt

28%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 51% and Under 2.5 is 49%.

Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 Napoli games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	75%	25%	1.32
2.5 goals	51%	49%	1.98
3.5 goals	28%	72%	3.51

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: SSC Napoli score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and FK Bodø/Glimt in about 68%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 2 of 3 Napoli games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.85
No	46%	2.18

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
SSC Napoli win	46%	2.17
Draw	26%	3.83
FK Bodø/Glimt win	28%	3.59
Over 2.5	51%	1.98
Under 2.5	49%	2.02

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SSC Napoli goals (rows) × FK Bodø/Glimt goals (columns)
SSC \ FK	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	7%	4%	2%	0%	0%
1	10%	12%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-0

10%

2-1

2-0

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Napoli and Bodø/Glimt played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Napoli, last 5

Napoli, last 5 at home

Bodø/Glimt, last 5

Bodø/Glimt, last 5 away

How Napoli and Bodø/Glimt compare this season

Stat	Napoli (home, 2)	Bodø/Glimt (away, 2)	Champions League average
Over 1.5	50% (1/2)	100% (2/2)	87%
Over 2.5	50% (1/2)	100% (2/2)	74%
Over 3.5	50% (1/2)	100% (2/2)	63%
BTTS	50% (1/2)	50% (1/2)	67%
Win %	50% (1/2)	0% (0/2)	59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game	2.00	1.50	2.05
Goals against per game	2.00	4.50	2.05

Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Napoli v Bodø/Glimt?: Our model makes Napoli the more likely winner at 46%: Napoli 46%, draw 26%, Bodø/Glimt 28%. Model expects 2.7 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Napoli v Bodø/Glimt?: Over 2.5 goals is 51% and under 2.5 is 49%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 Napoli games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Napoli and Bodø/Glimt played recently?: Latest first: Napoli LLWDW, Bodø/Glimt WLLWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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