AS Roma vs Genoa CFC prediction

Serie A · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: AS Roma 2–0 Genoa CFC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave AS Roma a 68% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–0 a 14% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

7 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (68%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (74%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (51%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (73%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick no (52%)Correct
Correct score: pick 2-0 (14%)Correct
Double chance: pick 1X (89%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

AS Roma vs Genoa CFC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): AS Roma 68% · Draw 21% · Genoa CFC 11%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 1.96–0.67. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Roma vs Genoa pre-match preview

Roma (3rd, 17 pts) host Genoa (17th, 4 pts) in the Serie A. Roma have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LDDWD) and Genoa 4 points from 5 (WLDLL). Roma are unbeaten in their last 14 league games.

Our model makes Roma clear favourites at 68%, with Genoa at 11%. Expected goals are 1.96 for Roma and 0.67 for Genoa, and the most likely score is 2-0 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 51%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Roma won 2, Genoa won 1 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Roma to win is the model's clearest call at 68%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win AS Roma vs Genoa CFC?

AS Roma are clear favourites at 68%, with Genoa CFC at 11%. Recent form: AS Roma LDDWDW, Genoa CFC WLDLLL (latest first).

Genoa lost all 3 away games this season.

AS Roma

68%

Draw

21%

Genoa CFC

11%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Under 2.5 in 2 of 3 Genoa away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.35
2.5 goals	49%	51%	2.05
3.5 goals	27%	73%	3.70

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: AS Roma score in about 86% of simulated outcomes and Genoa CFC in about 49%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	48%	2.10
No	52%	1.91

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AS Roma win	68%	1.48
Draw	21%	4.79
Genoa CFC win	11%	8.81
Over 2.5	49%	2.05
Under 2.5	51%	1.96

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AS Roma goals (rows) × Genoa CFC goals (columns)
AS \ Genoa	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	4%	2%	0%	0%	0%
1	14%	10%	3%	1%	0%	0%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%
3	9%	6%	2%	0%	0%	0%
4	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-0

14%

1-0

14%

1-1

10%

2-1

3-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Roma and Genoa played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Roma are unbeaten in their last 14 league games.
Genoa: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Roma and Genoa.

How Roma and Genoa compare this season

Stat	Roma (home, 4)	Genoa (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	67% (2/3)	84%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	33% (1/3)	60%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	0% (0/3)	30%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	33% (1/3)	57%
Win %	75% (3/4)	0% (0/3)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	2.50	0.33	1.48
Goals against per game	0.75	1.67	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Roma	3	17	7
Genoa	17	4	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Roma 2 wins, 1 draw, Genoa 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 4 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 8 Mar 2026	Serie A	Genoa v Roma	2–1
Mon, 29 Dec 2025	Serie A	Roma v Genoa	3–1
Fri, 17 Jan 2025	Serie A	Roma v Genoa	3–1
Sun, 15 Sept 2024	Serie A	Genoa v Roma	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Roma v Genoa?: Our model makes Roma the more likely winner at 68%: Roma 68%, draw 21%, Genoa 11%. Genoa lost all 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Roma v Genoa?: Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 2 of 3 Genoa away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-0 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Roma and Genoa played recently?: Latest first: Roma LDDWD, Genoa WLDLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%

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