ProbaPredict

Juventus FC crest Juventus FC vs SS Lazio SS Lazio crest prediction

Serie A · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Juventus FC 0–3 SS Lazio (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave SS Lazio a 22% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–3 a 1% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 5.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Juventus FC vs SS Lazio prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Juventus FC 52% · Draw 27% · SS Lazio 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.52–0.89. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (10%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Juventus vs Lazio pre-match preview

Juventus (8th, 11 pts) host Lazio (2nd, 19 pts) in the Serie A. Juventus have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (DWLDW) and Lazio 13 points from 5 (WWDWW). Lazio are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

Our model makes Juventus clear favourites at 52%, with Lazio at 22%. Expected goals are 1.52 for Juventus and 0.89 for Lazio, and the most likely score is 1-0 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 57%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Juventus won 1, Lazio won 1 and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Juventus FC vs SS Lazio?

Juventus FC are clear favourites at 52%, with SS Lazio at 22%. Recent form: Juventus FC DWLDWW, SS Lazio WWDWWW (latest first).

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Juventus FC52%
Draw27%
SS Lazio22%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 57%; Over 2.5 is 43%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Juventus home games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals70%30%1.43
2.5 goals43%57%2.31
3.5 goals22%78%4.47

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: Juventus FC score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and SS Lazio in about 59%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes49%2.03
No51%1.97

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Juventus FC win52%1.94
Draw27%3.74
SS Lazio win22%4.63
Over 2.543%2.31
Under 2.557%1.76

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:XWhatsAppTelegramFacebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Juventus FC goals (rows) × SS Lazio goals (columns)
Juventus \ SS012345
09%8%4%1%0%0%
113%13%5%2%0%0%
210%9%4%1%0%0%
35%5%2%1%0%0%
42%2%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-013%
1-113%
2-010%
0-09%
2-19%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Juventus and Lazio played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Juventus, last 5
  1. D 1–1 at Cagliari
  2. W 2–0 v Atalanta
  3. L 2–3 at Sassuolo
  4. D 1–1 v Milan
  5. W 2–0 v Parma
Juventus, last 5 at home
  1. W 2–0 v Atalanta
  2. D 1–1 v Milan
  3. W 2–0 v Parma
  4. L 0–2 v Fiorentina
  5. D 1–1 v Verona
Lazio, last 5
  1. W 3–1 v Monza
  2. W 2–0 at Venezia
  3. D 2–2 v Milan
  4. W 2–1 at Udinese
  5. W 1–0 v Genoa
Lazio, last 5 away
  1. W 2–0 at Venezia
  2. W 2–1 at Udinese
  3. W 1–0 at Bologna
  4. L 0–2 at Roma
  5. W 2–1 at Cremonese

Current streaks

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Juventus and Lazio.

How Juventus and Lazio compare this season

StatJuventus (home, 4)Lazio (away, 4)Serie A average
Over 1.5100% (4/4)75% (3/4)84%
Over 2.525% (1/4)50% (2/4)60%
Over 3.50% (0/4)0% (0/4)30%
BTTS25% (1/4)25% (1/4)57%
Win %50% (2/4)100% (4/4)47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game1.252.001.48
Goals against per game1.000.251.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

TeamPosPtsP
Juventus8117
Lazio2197

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Juventus 1 win, 2 draws, Lazio 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 8 Feb 2026Serie AJuventus v Lazio2–2
Sun, 26 Oct 2025Serie ALazio v Juventus1–0
Sat, 10 May 2025Serie ALazio v Juventus1–1
Sat, 19 Oct 2024Serie AJuventus v Lazio1–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Juventus v Lazio?
Our model makes Juventus the more likely winner at 52%: Juventus 52%, draw 27%, Lazio 22%. Model expects 2.4 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Juventus v Lazio?
Over 2.5 goals is 43% and under 2.5 is 57%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Juventus home games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-0 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Juventus and Lazio played recently?
Latest first: Juventus DWLDW, Lazio WWDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Serie A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ACagliari Calcio crestCagliariBologna FC 1909 crestBolognaU3.579%32%29%39%42%69%21%50%
14:00 · Serie AComo 1907 crestComo 1907US Sassuolo Calcio crestSassuoloO1.582%61%21%18%60%82%38%53%
17:00 · Serie ASSC Napoli crestNapoliAS Roma crestRomaU3.579%36%29%35%42%69%21%50%
19:45 · Serie ASS Lazio crestLazioParma Calcio 1913 crestParmaU3.581%58%26%16%39%66%19%47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie AFC Internazionale Milano crestInterACF Fiorentina crestFiorentinaO1.586%72%16%11%68%86%46%53%
14:00 · Serie AAtalanta BC crestAtalantaFrosinone Calcio crestFrosinoneO1.579%56%23%20%56%79%34%53%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 18 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoSão Paulo FC crestSão Paulo1CR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da Gama0O1.574%✕45%✓27%✕29%✕48%✕74%✕26%✕51%✕
FT · EredivisiePEC Zwolle crestZwolle4Go Ahead Eagles crestGo Ahead1O1.585%✓28%✓23%✕49%✕65%✓85%✓43%✓61%✓
FT · Serie AUdinese Calcio crestUdinese0US Lecce crestLecce3U3.580%✓53%✕27%✕20%✓41%✓68%✓20%✕48%✕
FT · La LigaCA Osasuna crestOsasuna2Real Racing Club de Santander crestSantander0O1.587%✓48%✓22%✕30%✕68%✕87%✓46%✕60%✕
FT · EredivisieSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden crestCambuur2AZ crestAZ2O1.586%✓22%✕21%✓56%✕66%✓86%✓44%✓60%✓