Eredivisie · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK
ADO Den Haag vs SC Heerenveen prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): ADO Den Haag 34% · Draw 25% · SC Heerenveen 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.45–1.61. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Den Haag vs Heerenveen preview
Den Haag (17th, 6 pts) host Heerenveen (8th, 12 pts) in the Eredivisie. Den Haag have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (WDDLL) and Heerenveen 7 points from 5 (WLWDL). Den Haag: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Den Haag 34%, Heerenveen 41%. Expected goals are 1.45 for Den Haag and 1.61 for Heerenveen, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).
Over 2.5 goals is 59%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win ADO Den Haag vs SC Heerenveen?
This is close to a coin flip: ADO Den Haag 34%, SC Heerenveen 41%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: ADO Den Haag WDDLLD, SC Heerenveen WLWDLD (latest first).
Model expects 3.1 total goals.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.
Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Den Haag home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 81% | 19% | 1.23 |
| 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | 1.69 |
| 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | 2.73 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: ADO Den Haag score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and SC Heerenveen in about 80%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 4 Den Haag home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.47 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 34% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 |
| SC Heerenveen win | 41% | 2.43 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.1 total goals.
| ADO \ SC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Den Haag and Heerenveen played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Den Haag: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
- Heerenveen: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 4 league games.
- Heerenveen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Den Haag: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- Den Haag are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Den Haag and Heerenveen.
How Den Haag and Heerenveen compare this season
| Stat | Den Haag (home, 4) | Heerenveen (away, 4) | Eredivisie average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (4/4) | 100% (4/4) | 91% |
| Over 2.5 | 75% (3/4) | 75% (3/4) | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% (2/4) | 75% (3/4) | 63% |
| BTTS | 100% (4/4) | 50% (2/4) | 72% |
| Win % | 25% (1/4) | 25% (1/4) | 32% home · 40% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.92 |
| Goals against per game | 2.25 | 1.50 | 1.92 |
Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Eredivisie table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den Haag | 17 | 6 | 9 |
| Heerenveen | 8 | 12 | 9 |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in our records.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Den Haag v Heerenveen?
- Our model makes Heerenveen the more likely winner at 41%: Den Haag 34%, draw 25%, Heerenveen 41%. Model expects 3.1 total goals.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Den Haag v Heerenveen?
- Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Den Haag home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Den Haag and Heerenveen played recently?
- Latest first: Den Haag WDDLL, Heerenveen WLWDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- ADO Den Haag
- SC Heerenveen
- Eredivisie predictions
- Eredivisie table
- Eredivisie Home win
- Eredivisie Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Eredivisie predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 63% | 20% | 17% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 59% |
17:45 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.583% | 36% | 24% | 39% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 60% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 44% | 25% | 31% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 52% | 22% | 25% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.591% | 55% | 20% | 25% | 76% | 91% | 56% | 64% |
15:45 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.583% | 24% | 23% | 53% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 59% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 51% |
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.581% | 27% | 25% | 48% | 57% | 81% | 35% | 59% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.577% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 45% | 71% | 23% | 52% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.576% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 53% |