Eredivisie · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:30 UK
Full-time: ADO Den Haag 2–1 PSV (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave ADO Den Haag a 9% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–1 a 3% chance. An upset by the model's numbers: an outcome rated this low happens about 1 time in 11.
3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick away (78%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (94%)Correct
- Over/Under 2.5: pick over (82%)Correct
- Over/Under 3.5: pick over (65%)Incorrect
- Both teams to score: pick yes (61%)Correct
- Correct score: pick 1-3 (8%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick X2 (91%)Incorrect
Published before kick-off, unchanged
ADO Den Haag vs PSV prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:30 UK): ADO Den Haag 9% · Draw 12% · PSV 78%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%. Most likely score: 1-3. Expected goals 1.16–3.31. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 61%, No 39%. Most likely scores: 1-3 (8%), 1-2 (7%), 0-3 (7%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Den Haag vs PSV pre-match preview
Den Haag (17th, 6 pts) host PSV (3rd, 19 pts) in the Eredivisie. Den Haag have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (DDLLD) and PSV 7 points from 5 (LWLWD). PSV: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 30 league games.
Our model makes PSV clear favourites at 78%, with Den Haag at 9%. Expected goals are 1.16 for Den Haag and 3.31 for PSV, and the most likely score is 1-3 (8%).
Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 61%, against 72% across the Eredivisie.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 82%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.
Who will win ADO Den Haag vs PSV?
PSV are clear favourites at 78%, with ADO Den Haag at 9%. Recent form: ADO Den Haag DDLLDL, PSV LWLWDW (latest first).
PSV won 3 of 5 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals is likely at 82%.
Over 2.5 in all 5 PSV away games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 94% | 6% | 1.07 |
| 2.5 goals | 82% | 18% | 1.22 |
| 3.5 goals | 65% | 35% | 1.53 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance: ADO Den Haag score in about 72% of simulated outcomes and PSV in about 96%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 5 PSV away games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 9% | 10.76 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.08 |
| PSV win | 78% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.64 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 4.5 total goals.
| ADO \ PSV | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 4% |
| 1 | 1% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 4% |
| 2 | 1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| 3 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 12% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Den Haag and PSV played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- PSV: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 30 league games.
- Den Haag: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
- Den Haag: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- Den Haag are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Den Haag and PSV.
How Den Haag and PSV compare this season
| Stat | Den Haag (home, 4) | PSV (away, 5) | Eredivisie average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (4/4) | 100% (5/5) | 91% |
| Over 2.5 | 75% (3/4) | 100% (5/5) | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% (2/4) | 60% (3/5) | 63% |
| BTTS | 100% (4/4) | 100% (5/5) | 72% |
| Win % | 25% (1/4) | 60% (3/5) | 32% home · 40% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.50 | 2.80 | 1.92 |
| Goals against per game | 2.25 | 1.60 | 1.92 |
Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Eredivisie table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den Haag | 17 | 6 | 9 |
| PSV | 3 | 19 | 9 |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in our records.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Den Haag v PSV?
- Our model makes PSV the more likely winner at 78%: Den Haag 9%, draw 12%, PSV 78%. PSV won 3 of 5 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Den Haag v PSV?
- Over 2.5 goals is 82% and under 2.5 is 18%, with expected goals of 4.5. Over 2.5 in all 5 PSV away games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-3 at 8%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Den Haag and PSV played recently?
- Latest first: Den Haag DDLLD, PSV LWLWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- ADO Den Haag
- PSV
- Eredivisie predictions
- Eredivisie table
- Eredivisie Home win
- Eredivisie Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Eredivisie predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 63% | 20% | 17% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 59% |
17:45 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.583% | 36% | 24% | 39% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 60% |
20:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 34% | 25% | 41% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 44% | 25% | 31% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 52% | 22% | 25% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.591% | 55% | 20% | 25% | 76% | 91% | 56% | 64% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574%✓ | 48%✓ | 26%✕ | 25%✕ | 48%✕ | 73%✓ | 26%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578%✕ | 62%✕ | 24%✓ | 14%✕ | 43%✓ | 70%✓ | 22%✓ | 48%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.581%✓ | 61%✕ | 22%✓ | 18%✕ | 58%✓ | 81%✓ | 36%✓ | 54%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.582%✓ | 39%✓ | 30%✕ | 31%✕ | 37%✕ | 65%✓ | 18%✕ | 50%✕ |
FT · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.575%✓ | 38%✕ | 27%✕ | 35%✓ | 50%✕ | 75%✓ | 28%✕ | 57%✕ |