Eredivisie · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:30 UK
FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:30 UK): FC Utrecht 63% · Draw 20% · PEC Zwolle 17%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.26–1.10. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Utrecht vs Zwolle preview
Utrecht (11th, 11 pts) host Zwolle (15th, 7 pts) in the Eredivisie. Utrecht have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WWLWD) and Zwolle 4 points from 5 (WLLLD), so Utrecht arrive in clearly better form. Utrecht: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 17 league games.
Our model makes Utrecht clear favourites at 63%, with Zwolle at 17%. Expected goals are 2.26 for Utrecht and 1.10 for Zwolle, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).
Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 59%, against 72% across the Eredivisie. In their last 5 meetings, Utrecht won 3, Zwolle didn't win any and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 65%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.
Who will win FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
FC Utrecht are clear favourites at 63%, with PEC Zwolle at 17%. Recent form: FC Utrecht WWLWDL, PEC Zwolle WLLLDL (latest first).
Utrecht won 3 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals is likely at 65%.
Over 2.5 in all 9 Utrecht games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 85% | 15% | 1.17 |
| 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | 1.53 |
| 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | 2.31 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: FC Utrecht score in about 90% of simulated outcomes and PEC Zwolle in about 68%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 4 Utrecht home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.03 |
| PEC Zwolle win | 17% | 5.84 |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.88 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.4 total goals.
| FC \ PEC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 7% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 3% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Utrecht and Zwolle played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Utrecht: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 17 league games.
- Utrecht: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Utrecht and Zwolle.
How Utrecht and Zwolle compare this season
| Stat | Utrecht (home, 4) | Zwolle (away, 4) | Eredivisie average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (4/4) | 100% (4/4) | 91% |
| Over 2.5 | 100% (4/4) | 75% (3/4) | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% (4/4) | 50% (2/4) | 63% |
| BTTS | 100% (4/4) | 50% (2/4) | 72% |
| Win % | 25% (1/4) | 25% (1/4) | 32% home · 40% away |
| Goals for per game | 2.00 | 1.25 | 1.92 |
| Goals against per game | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.92 |
Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Eredivisie table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| Zwolle | 15 | 7 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Utrecht 3 wins, 2 draws, Zwolle 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 22 Feb 2026 | Eredivisie | Utrecht v Zwolle | 1–1 |
| Sun, 31 Aug 2025 | Eredivisie | Zwolle v Utrecht | 0–2 |
| Sat, 1 Feb 2025 | Eredivisie | Zwolle v Utrecht | 3–3 |
| Sun, 11 Aug 2024 | Eredivisie | Utrecht v Zwolle | 1–0 |
| Wed, 3 Apr 2024 | Eredivisie | Utrecht v Zwolle | 5–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Utrecht v Zwolle?
- Our model makes Utrecht the more likely winner at 63%: Utrecht 63%, draw 20%, Zwolle 17%. Utrecht won 3 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Utrecht v Zwolle?
- Over 2.5 goals is 65% and under 2.5 is 35%, with expected goals of 3.4. Over 2.5 in all 9 Utrecht games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Utrecht and Zwolle played recently?
- Latest first: Utrecht WWLWD, Zwolle WLLLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- FC Utrecht
- PEC Zwolle
- Eredivisie predictions
- Eredivisie table
- Eredivisie Home win
- Eredivisie Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Eredivisie predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17:45 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.583% | 36% | 24% | 39% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 60% |
20:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 34% | 25% | 41% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 44% | 25% | 31% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 52% | 22% | 25% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.591% | 55% | 20% | 25% | 76% | 91% | 56% | 64% |
15:45 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.583% | 24% | 23% | 53% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 59% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 51% |
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.581% | 27% | 25% | 48% | 57% | 81% | 35% | 59% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.577% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 45% | 71% | 23% | 52% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.576% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 53% |