Sparta Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax prediction

Eredivisie · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 15:45 UK

Sparta Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 15:45 UK): Sparta Rotterdam 24% · Draw 23% · AFC Ajax 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.24–1.92. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Sparta vs Ajax preview

Sparta (13th, 9 pts) host Ajax (4th, 18 pts) in the Eredivisie. Sparta have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (WDLLD) and Ajax 11 points from 5 (WDDWW), so Ajax arrive in clearly better form. Ajax: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.

Our model favours Ajax at 53% to Sparta's 24%. Expected goals are 1.24 for Sparta and 1.92 for Ajax, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

Over 2.5 goals is 61%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match. In their last 5 meetings, Sparta didn't win any, Ajax won 2 and 3 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax?

AFC Ajax are favoured at 53%, but the draw and a Sparta Rotterdam win together still account for 47%. Recent form: Sparta Rotterdam WDLLDL, AFC Ajax WDDWWL (latest first).

Ajax won all 4 away games this season.

Sparta Rotterdam

24%

Draw

23%

AFC Ajax

53%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 61% and Under 2.5 is 39%.

Over 2.5 in 8 of 9 Sparta games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	83%	17%	1.21
2.5 goals	61%	39%	1.63
3.5 goals	39%	61%	2.57

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: Sparta Rotterdam score in about 71% of simulated outcomes and AFC Ajax in about 85%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 7 of 9 Sparta games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	59%	1.69
No	41%	2.45

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Sparta Rotterdam win	24%	4.14
Draw	23%	4.37
AFC Ajax win	53%	1.89
Over 2.5	61%	1.63
Under 2.5	39%	2.58

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam goals (rows) × AFC Ajax goals (columns)
Sparta \ AFC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%
1	5%	10%	10%	6%	3%	1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%
3	1%	3%	2%	2%	1%	0%
4	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

10%

1-2

10%

0-2

0-1

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Sparta and Ajax played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Ajax: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
Sparta: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Sparta: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Ajax: both teams scored in each of their last 6 league games.
Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.

Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Sparta and Ajax.

How Sparta and Ajax compare this season

Stat	Sparta (home, 5)	Ajax (away, 4)	Eredivisie average
Over 1.5	80% (4/5)	100% (4/4)	91%
Over 2.5	80% (4/5)	75% (3/4)	75%
Over 3.5	80% (4/5)	75% (3/4)	63%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	50% (2/4)	72%
Win %	20% (1/5)	100% (4/4)	32% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	1.60	4.00	1.92
Goals against per game	2.40	0.75	1.92

Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Eredivisie table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Sparta	13	9	9
Ajax	4	18	9

Full Eredivisie table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Sparta 0 wins, 3 draws, Ajax 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 14 Mar 2026	Eredivisie	Ajax v Sparta	4–0
Sat, 4 Oct 2025	Eredivisie	Sparta v Ajax	3–3
Sun, 27 Apr 2025	Eredivisie	Ajax v Sparta	1–1
Sun, 22 Dec 2024	Eredivisie	Sparta v Ajax	0–2
Sun, 17 Mar 2024	Eredivisie	Sparta v Ajax	2–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sparta v Ajax?: Our model makes Ajax the more likely winner at 53%: Sparta 24%, draw 23%, Ajax 53%. Ajax won all 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sparta v Ajax?: Over 2.5 goals is 61% and under 2.5 is 39%, with expected goals of 3.2. Over 2.5 in 8 of 9 Sparta games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Sparta and Ajax played recently?: Latest first: Sparta WDLLD, Ajax WDDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

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