Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Tilburg prediction

Eredivisie · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II Tilburg (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Sparta Rotterdam a 58% chance of winning, and the exact score 3–2 a 3% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (58%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (78%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (54%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (68%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (56%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (81%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Tilburg prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Sparta Rotterdam 58% · Draw 23% · Willem II Tilburg 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.86–0.99. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Sparta vs Willem II pre-match preview

Sparta (13th, 9 pts) host Willem II (18th, 2 pts) in the Eredivisie. Sparta have taken 2 points from their last 5 games (DLLDL) and Willem II 1 point from 5 (LLLDL). Willem II have not won in their last 26 league games.

Our model makes Sparta clear favourites at 58%, with Willem II at 19%. Expected goals are 1.86 for Sparta and 0.99 for Willem II, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 54%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match. In their last 4 meetings, Sparta won all 4; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Sparta to win is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Tilburg?

Sparta Rotterdam are clear favourites at 58%, with Willem II Tilburg at 19%. Recent form: Sparta Rotterdam DLLDLD, Willem II Tilburg LLLDLD (latest first).

Willem II lost 4 of 5 away games this season.

Sparta Rotterdam

58%

Draw

23%

Willem II Tilburg

19%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 54% and Under 2.5 is 46%.

Over 2.5 in 8 of 9 Sparta games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	78%	22%	1.28
2.5 goals	54%	46%	1.84
3.5 goals	32%	68%	3.13

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: Sparta Rotterdam score in about 84% of simulated outcomes and Willem II Tilburg in about 63%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 5 Willem II away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	56%	1.78
No	44%	2.28

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Sparta Rotterdam win	58%	1.74
Draw	23%	4.32
Willem II Tilburg win	19%	5.19
Over 2.5	54%	1.84
Under 2.5	46%	2.18

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam goals (rows) × Willem II Tilburg goals (columns)
Sparta \ Willem	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	10%	11%	5%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	3%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

1-0

10%

2-0

10%

2-1

10%

3-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Sparta and Willem II played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Sparta, last 5

Sparta, last 5 at home

Willem II, last 5

Willem II, last 5 away

Current streaks

Willem II have not won in their last 26 league games.
Sparta: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Sparta: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Willem II have lost each of their last 4 league games.

Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Sparta and Willem II.

How Sparta and Willem II compare this season

Stat	Sparta (home, 5)	Willem II (away, 5)	Eredivisie average
Over 1.5	80% (4/5)	100% (5/5)	91%
Over 2.5	80% (4/5)	80% (4/5)	75%
Over 3.5	80% (4/5)	80% (4/5)	63%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	100% (5/5)	72%
Win %	20% (1/5)	0% (0/5)	32% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	1.60	1.20	1.92
Goals against per game	2.40	3.20	1.92

Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Eredivisie table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Sparta	13	9	9
Willem II	18	2	9

Full Eredivisie table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Sparta 4 wins, 0 draws, Willem II 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 2 Mar 2025	Eredivisie	Sparta v Willem II	4–0
Sat, 31 Aug 2024	Eredivisie	Willem II v Sparta	1–2
Sun, 13 Feb 2022	Eredivisie	Sparta v Willem II	1–0
Sat, 6 Nov 2021	Eredivisie	Willem II v Sparta	0–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sparta v Willem II?: Our model makes Sparta the more likely winner at 58%: Sparta 58%, draw 23%, Willem II 19%. Willem II lost 4 of 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sparta v Willem II?: Over 2.5 goals is 54% and under 2.5 is 46%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 8 of 9 Sparta games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Sparta and Willem II played recently?: Latest first: Sparta DLLDL, Willem II LLLDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

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