FC Groningen vs AFC Ajax prediction

Eredivisie · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 15:45 UK

Full-time: FC Groningen 2–5 AFC Ajax (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 15:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave AFC Ajax a 41% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–5 a 0% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (41%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (80%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (56%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (66%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (59%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (75%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

FC Groningen vs AFC Ajax prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 15:45 UK): FC Groningen 34% · Draw 25% · AFC Ajax 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.39–1.55. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Groningen vs Ajax pre-match preview

Groningen (7th, 14 pts) host Ajax (4th, 18 pts) in the Eredivisie. Groningen have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (WWDDL) and Ajax 8 points from 5 (DDWWL). Groningen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 13 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Groningen 34%, Ajax 41%. Expected goals are 1.39 for Groningen and 1.55 for Ajax, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 56%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match. In their last 4 meetings, Groningen won 1, Ajax won 2 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win FC Groningen vs AFC Ajax?

This is close to a coin flip: FC Groningen 34%, AFC Ajax 41%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: FC Groningen WWDDLL, AFC Ajax DDWWLW (latest first).

Ajax won all 4 away games this season.

FC Groningen

34%

Draw

25%

AFC Ajax

41%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in all 5 Groningen home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	80%	20%	1.26
2.5 goals	56%	44%	1.77
3.5 goals	34%	66%	2.94

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: FC Groningen score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and AFC Ajax in about 79%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 8 of 9 Groningen games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	59%	1.71
No	41%	2.42

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Groningen win	34%	2.96
Draw	25%	3.96
AFC Ajax win	41%	2.44
Over 2.5	56%	1.77
Under 2.5	44%	2.30

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Groningen goals (rows) × AFC Ajax goals (columns)
FC \ AFC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	8%	6%	3%	1%	0%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	2%	4%	3%	1%	1%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-2

2-1

0-1

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Groningen and Ajax played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Groningen, last 5

Groningen, last 5 at home

Ajax, last 5

Ajax, last 5 away

Current streaks

Groningen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 13 league games.
Ajax: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
Ajax: both teams scored in each of their last 6 league games.
Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Groningen: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Groningen and Ajax.

How Groningen and Ajax compare this season

Stat	Groningen (home, 5)	Ajax (away, 4)	Eredivisie average
Over 1.5	100% (5/5)	100% (4/4)	91%
Over 2.5	100% (5/5)	75% (3/4)	75%
Over 3.5	60% (3/5)	75% (3/4)	63%
BTTS	80% (4/5)	50% (2/4)	72%
Win %	40% (2/5)	100% (4/4)	32% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	2.20	4.00	1.92
Goals against per game	2.20	0.75	1.92

Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Eredivisie table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Groningen	7	14	9
Ajax	4	18	9

Full Eredivisie table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Groningen 1 win, 1 draw, Ajax 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 7 Mar 2026	Eredivisie	Groningen v Ajax	3–1
Tue, 2 Dec 2025	Eredivisie	Ajax v Groningen	2–0
Wed, 14 May 2025	Eredivisie	Groningen v Ajax	2–2
Sun, 6 Oct 2024	Eredivisie	Ajax v Groningen	3–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Groningen v Ajax?: Our model makes Ajax the more likely winner at 41%: Groningen 34%, draw 25%, Ajax 41%. Ajax won all 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Groningen v Ajax?: Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in all 5 Groningen home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Groningen and Ajax played recently?: Latest first: Groningen WWDDL, Ajax DDWWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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20:00 · EredivisieEredivisieDen HaagvHeerenveen	O1.581%	34%	25%	41%	81%	59%	37%	59%	59%	81%	37%	59%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisieSittardvExcelsior	O1.581%	44%	25%	31%	81%	59%	37%	59%	59%	81%	37%	59%
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisieNECvGroningen	O1.585%	52%	22%	25%	85%	65%	43%	60%	65%	85%	43%	60%
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