ProbaPredict

FC Porto crest FC Porto vs PSV PSV crest prediction

Champions League · Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: FC Porto 0–1 PSV (Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave PSV a 27% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 5% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

FC Porto vs PSV prediction (Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): FC Porto 50% · Draw 23% · PSV 27%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.86–1.33. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Porto vs PSV pre-match preview

Porto host PSV in the Champions League. Porto have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (LWWWL) and PSV 6 points from 5 (LLWLW). Porto have lost each of their last 3 Champions League games.

Our model favours Porto at 50% to PSV's 27%. Expected goals are 1.86 for Porto and 1.33 for PSV, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 62%, below the Champions League rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Champions League match.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 62%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win FC Porto vs PSV?

FC Porto are favoured at 50%, but the draw and a PSV win together still account for 50%. Recent form: FC Porto LWWWLW, PSV LLWLWD (latest first).

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

FC Porto50%
Draw23%
PSV27%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 62% and Under 2.5 is 38%.

Over 2.5 in 6 of 8 PSV games last season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals83%17%1.20
2.5 goals62%38%1.62
3.5 goals39%61%2.54

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: FC Porto score in about 84% of simulated outcomes and PSV in about 74%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 7 of 8 PSV games last season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes57%1.74
No43%2.35

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Porto win50%2.02
Draw23%4.28
PSV win27%3.70
Over 2.562%1.62
Under 2.538%2.61

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Porto goals (rows) × PSV goals (columns)
FC \ PSV012345
05%5%4%2%1%0%
17%11%7%3%1%0%
27%9%6%3%1%0%
34%6%4%2%1%0%
42%3%2%1%0%0%
51%1%1%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-111%
2-19%
1-07%
2-07%
1-27%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Porto and PSV played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Porto, last 5
  1. L 2–3 at Real Betis
  2. W 2–1 at Marítimo
  3. W 3–1 v SL Benfica
  4. W 4–1 at Casa Pia
  5. L 0–2 v Man City
Porto, last 5 at home
  1. W 3–1 v SL Benfica
  2. L 0–2 v Man City
  3. W 2–1 v Moreirense
  4. W 2–0 v Arouca
  5. W 2–0 v Alverca
PSV, last 5
  1. L 1–2 at Den Haag
  2. L 0–1 at Leipzig
  3. W 2–0 v Heerenveen
  4. L 2–3 at Twente
  5. W 4–1 v Sparta
PSV, last 5 away
  1. L 1–2 at Den Haag
  2. L 0–1 at Leipzig
  3. L 2–3 at Twente
  4. W 3–1 at Ajax
  5. W 6–1 at Utrecht

Current streaks

Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Porto and PSV.

How Porto and PSV compare this season

StatPorto (home, 2)PSV (away, 2)Champions League average
Over 1.550% (1/2)0% (0/2)87%
Over 2.50% (0/2)0% (0/2)74%
Over 3.50% (0/2)0% (0/2)63%
BTTS0% (0/2)0% (0/2)67%
Win %0% (0/2)50% (1/2)59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game0.000.502.05
Goals against per game1.500.502.05

Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Porto v PSV?
Our model makes Porto the more likely winner at 50%: Porto 50%, draw 23%, PSV 27%. Model expects 3.2 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Porto v PSV?
Over 2.5 goals is 62% and under 2.5 is 38%, with expected goals of 3.2. Over 2.5 in 6 of 8 PSV games last season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Porto and PSV played recently?
Latest first: Porto LWWWL, PSV LLWLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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