ProbaPredict

Manchester City FC crest Manchester City FC vs Ipswich Town FC Ipswich Town FC crest prediction

Premier League · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Full-time: Manchester City FC 3–2 Ipswich Town FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Manchester City FC a 79% chance of winning, and the exact score 3–2 a 3% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Manchester City FC vs Ipswich Town FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Manchester City FC 79% · Draw 14% · Ipswich Town FC 8%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 2.84–0.82. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Man City vs Ipswich Town pre-match preview

Man City (1st, 21 pts) host Ipswich Town (10th, 9 pts) in the Premier League. Man City have taken 12 points from their last 5 games (LWWWW) and Ipswich Town 6 points from 5 (WLWLL), so Man City arrive in clearly better form. Man City are unbeaten in their last 7 league games.

Our model makes Man City clear favourites at 79%, with Ipswich Town at 8%. Expected goals are 2.84 for Man City and 0.82 for Ipswich Town, and the most likely score is 2-0 (10%).

Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 71%, against a Premier League average of 54%.

Man City to win is the model's clearest call at 79%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win Manchester City FC vs Ipswich Town FC?

Manchester City FC are clear favourites at 79%, with Ipswich Town FC at 8%. Recent form: Manchester City FC LWWWWW, Ipswich Town FC WLWLLW (latest first).

Man City won all 4 home games this season.

Manchester City FC79%
Draw14%
Ipswich Town FC8%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 71%.

Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Man City home games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals88%12%1.13
2.5 goals71%29%1.42
3.5 goals50%50%2.02

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: Manchester City FC score in about 94% of simulated outcomes and Ipswich Town FC in about 59%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Man City home games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes56%1.79
No44%2.27

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Manchester City FC win79%1.27
Draw14%7.38
Ipswich Town FC win8%12.83
Over 2.571%1.42
Under 2.529%3.41

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Manchester City FC goals (rows) × Ipswich Town FC goals (columns)
Manchester \ Ipswich012345
03%2%1%0%0%0%
17%6%2%1%0%0%
210%9%3%1%0%0%
310%8%3%1%0%0%
47%6%2%1%0%0%
54%3%1%0%0%0%
Other7% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
2-010%
3-010%
2-19%
3-18%
1-07%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Man City and Ipswich Town played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Man City, last 5
  1. L 2–4 v PSG
  2. W 3–0 at Liverpool
  3. W 5–3 v Sunderland
  4. W 1–0 at Man United
  5. W 2–0 at Porto
Man City, last 5 at home
  1. L 2–4 v PSG
  2. W 5–3 v Sunderland
  3. W 1–0 v Coventry City
  4. W 2–1 v Bournemouth
  5. L 1–2 v Aston Villa
Ipswich Town, last 5
  1. W 2–1 v Fulham
  2. L 0–1 at Everton
  3. W 3–2 at Crystal Palace
  4. L 0–2 v Liverpool
  5. L 2–5 at Man United
Ipswich Town, last 5 away
  1. L 0–1 at Everton
  2. W 3–2 at Crystal Palace
  3. L 2–5 at Man United
  4. D 2–2 at Southampton
  5. D 0–0 at West Brom

Current streaks

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Man City and Ipswich Town.

How Man City and Ipswich Town compare this season

StatMan City (home, 4)Ipswich Town (away, 4)Premier League average
Over 1.575% (3/4)75% (3/4)76%
Over 2.575% (3/4)75% (3/4)54%
Over 3.550% (2/4)75% (3/4)36%
BTTS75% (3/4)75% (3/4)53%
Win %100% (4/4)25% (1/4)40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game2.751.751.45
Goals against per game1.502.751.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

TeamPosPtsP
Man City1217
Ipswich Town1097

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Man City 2 wins, 0 draws, Ipswich Town 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 19 Jan 2025Premier LeagueIpswich Town v Man City0–6
Sat, 24 Aug 2024Premier LeagueMan City v Ipswich Town4–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Man City v Ipswich Town?
Our model makes Man City the more likely winner at 79%: Man City 79%, draw 14%, Ipswich Town 8%. Man City won all 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Man City v Ipswich Town?
Over 2.5 goals is 71% and under 2.5 is 29%, with expected goals of 3.7. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Man City home games this season.
What is the most likely score?
2-0 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Man City and Ipswich Town played recently?
Latest first: Man City LWWWW, Ipswich Town WLWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Premier League predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgAston Villa FC crestAston VillaManchester City FC crestMan CityO1.581%27%25%48%57%81%35%59%
15:00 · Premier LgCoventry City FC crestCoventry CityFulham FC crestFulhamO1.575%36%27%37%50%75%28%57%
15:00 · Premier LgArsenal FC crestArsenalEverton FC crestEvertonU3.577%64%24%12%44%71%23%51%
17:30 · Premier LgChelsea FC crestChelseaTottenham Hotspur FC crestTottenhamO1.582%54%24%22%60%82%37%59%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Premier LgManchester United FC crestMan UnitedAFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthO1.582%44%25%31%59%82%37%60%
14:00 · Premier LgHull City AFC crestHull CityBrentford FC crestBrentfordO1.576%22%25%53%52%76%30%56%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 17 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassol2SC Internacional crestInternacional0U3.574%✓48%✓26%✕25%✕48%✕73%✓26%✕51%✕
FT · EFL ChampMillwall FC crestMillwall2Lincoln City FC crestLincoln City2U3.578%✕62%✕24%✓14%✕43%✓70%✓22%✓48%✓
FT · EFL ChampMiddlesbrough FC crestMiddlesbrough2Cardiff City FC crestCardiff2O1.581%✓61%✕22%✓18%✕58%✓81%✓36%✓54%✓
FT · EFL ChampWatford FC crestWatford2Charlton Athletic FC crestCharlton0U3.582%✓39%✓30%✕31%✕37%✕65%✓18%✕50%✕
FT · Premier LgEverton FC crestEverton0Chelsea FC crestChelsea2O1.575%✓38%✕27%✕35%✓50%✕75%✓28%✕57%✕